Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 3:21 AM   Moonset 2:46 PM

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FXUS64 KHUN 030533 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1233 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A weak cold front will continue to approach the Tennessee Valley overnight in response to a mid/upper low shifting into the Great Lakes. With high pressure shifting east of the area, southerly flow has helped to advect in Gulf moisture as seen by the mid 60s dewpoints in the latest 02z observations. Ahead of this front, sufficient forcing and deeper moisture will allow for low to medium (30-60%) chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06z. More widespread and higher chances (60-80%) for showers/storms are forecast during the day on Friday as the front slowly moves in (more on this in the section below). For the overnight period, however, dense cloud cover and slowly increasing PoPs will result in temperatures holding fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s. Thus, a very mild and somewhat humid night will be in store for the Tennessee Valley.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

With the deterioration of mid level ridging, a more zonal flow pattern will allow for several shortwaves to ripple through the area through the duration of the short term and into the long term. By morning on Friday, the first of these shortwaves will be moving through the area. High (60-80%) rain chances will be present in NW AL and progress east throughout the day. Best chances for rain and storms currently look to be Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon. The atmosphere will be very saturated and favorable for efficient rainfall production with periods of heavy rainfall possible all weekend. Friday there is a marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall, however with QPF amounts through the weekend continuing to remain below an inch, the overall flooding threat is low. Areas that experience periods of heavy rainfall could see some brief nuisance flooding due to slow moving storms.
Aside from heavy rainfall, frequent lightning from elevated thunderstorms will be the only other threat to outdoor activities this weekend.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle of the week!

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions early this morning will give way to increased cloud cover and lower ceilings as a slow moving front sweeps into the area. High chances (60-80%) of SHRA/TSRA are forecast during the day which will produce low-end VFR to MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. A few AWWs (and amendments) may be needed especially late this afternoon and evening due to TSRA activity.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

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