Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fence Lake, NM
May 3, 2024 4:15 AM MDT (10:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:48 AM Moonset 2:15 PM |
Area Discussion for - Flagstaff, AZ
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FXUS65 KFGZ 031001 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 301 AM MST Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through the start of the wee. Temperatures will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week.
DISCUSSION
Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon.
A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near- seasonable temperatures.
As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great BAsin and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal.
The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds!
With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on.
As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region.
Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes expected.
AVIATION
Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing through around 02Z.
OUTLOOK
Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z
VFR conditions expected.
Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance (10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon.
SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions north of the Mogollon Rim.
FIRE WEATHER
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 301 AM MST Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through the start of the wee. Temperatures will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week.
DISCUSSION
Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon.
A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near- seasonable temperatures.
As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great BAsin and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal.
The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds!
With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on.
As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region.
Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes expected.
AVIATION
Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing through around 02Z.
OUTLOOK
Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z
VFR conditions expected.
Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance (10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon.
SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions north of the Mogollon Rim.
FIRE WEATHER
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Albuquerque, NM,
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