Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerald Isle, NC

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 1010 AM Mon...UPdated forecast to increase pops acrs srn half of the FA and inc cloud cover regionwide. Area of deformation light rain and drizzle has formed on lee side of sfc low off the NC coast, and is gaining support aloft from upper trough over the region. Have also added areas of drizzle to the forecast for much of ENC, as a gloomy day is expected. At the least, the overcast low clouds will make for cool condtions today. Have lowered max T's by several degrees due to the rain and drizzle. All areas should remain down in the 60s all day.

Prev disc
As of 0230 Monday
Complex set up with double barrel coastal lows and multiple fronts stretched over the area.
FA lies between the two lows with one observed to the N near DelMarVa and the second meandering to the S just south of Cape Fear. The Nern low will deepen while inching closer to the Mid- Atlantic coast while the Sern low will drift Eward away from the Carolina coast as ridging expands Eward from Texas, shunting troughing aloft off the coast this evening. SChc to Chc PoPs remain through the near term along the Crystal Coast and OBX S of Hatt, transitioning to OBX N of Hatt this evening and overnight. Some clearing late may allow Sun to make an appearance, but Nerly winds slowly becoming NWerly will keep things on cooler side. MaxTs right around 70, warmest in SWern zones.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 0250 Monday...Ridging continues to build to the W of the FA, expanding from Sern Texas toward central CONUS. The two SFC lows begin to consolidate with the DelMarVA low sinking SEward to merge with the Sern low while pushing Eward out to sea as troughing aloft works over the coast. Select guidance shows enough moisture pooling on the backside of the low to justify carrying some low end SChc PoPs working from NW to SE in the overnight/early morning hours. MinTs mid 50s most, around 60 beaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler this week with lows bottoming out in the low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breeze conditions through this weekend. Next chance of rain possible by early next week

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions persist Tuesday with moisture from the coastal low and nearby upper trough still over ENC. A few widely scattered and light showers will be possible along the coast Tuesday as well. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, with a cooler airmass moving in for Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s)
thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then moves offshore Sunday which will signal a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain may come late Sunday or Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the Southeast.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Tues/...
As of 0130 Monday...

Key Messages

- Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs , vsbys and gusty winds through tonight

IFR flight cats in place with gusty NEerly winds as complex coastal low systems continue to meander offshore. Light rain becomes drizzle and mist through early morning hours. Drier air finally begins to work into the area from the W, but low- level moisture will likely hold strong into the afternoon. MVFR is likely by the afternoon for all terminals, with a slight chance (20%) of VFR for inner coastal plain terminals just before 00z Tues. Conditions deteriorate again overnight with subVFR CIGs likely.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 0300 Monday...Complex setup with FA sitting between two coastal lows, one deepening near DelMarVA and one weakening to S near SC. These two lows will consolidate while generally moving away from the East Coast overnight. Stiff Nerly winds gradually back to become more NWerly after sunset, easing to AoB 20kt sustained after midnight.

Seas will continue on the high side in the range of 8-14 ft.
But, conditions begin improving as lows slowly pull away. Waters inside of Gstream S of Hatt Inlet, 6-7ft, nearshore waters S of Lookout sheltered from N-NWerly winds, 4-7ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages

- A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week with marginal Gale conditions possible at times

As low pressure pulls away from the region Tuesday, strong high pressure will build in from the NW, and will keep the pressure gradient tight through most of the week. At times frequent Gale Force gusts are expected, but exactly when, and for how long these will occur remain in question, so no Gale Headlines are anticipated as of now. Winds will be NNW/N at 20-30 kts, with gusts 30-35+ kts, with a few lulls through Friday. Seas will rebuild to 6-10 ft, but could be higher north of Cape Hatteras.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 4 AM Mon...Though the coastal low has weakened, and will pull away from the region early this week, minor to moderate coastal flooding will continue due to persistent northerly winds.

Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Warnings continue through this afternoon for Hatteras Island and the northern OBX where significant impacts (2-4 ft AGL) are again possible during high tide. Water levels and wave run up will be less extreme than yesterday afternoon, but still have the potential to create major issues along NC 12, and impact adjacent vulnerable structures. Tomorrow afternoon's high tide has the potential to produce similar impacts, especially across Hatteras Island, and a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued here for the threat tomorrow. Due to offshore winds and decreasing swell, the Coastal Flood Warning for Ocracoke has been replaced with an Advisory, and mostly minor oceanside impacts (1-2 ft AGL) are expected with this afternoon's high tide. On the sound side, strong and steady northerly flow will lead to minor flooding impacts beginning later today from around Avon south to Ocracoke Village, and linger through at least Wednesday.

Downeast Carteret, Craven, Pamlico: Coastal Flood Advisories have replaced warnings here, and an extended period of minor flooding (1-2 ft AGL, locally up to 3 ft a times) is anticipated due to strong northerly winds. Flooding may be worsened around high tide early this week due to still higher than normal astronomical tides, with minor flooding impacts lasting through at least Wednesday.

Western Carteret, Coastal Onslow: One last "very high" high tide will occur this afternoon, which will likely cause some isolated areas of minor flooding (~1 ft AGL) along and adjacent to Bogue Sound and the White Oak and New Rivers.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194- 196-204.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ195-199.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203- 205.
High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205.
Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154.