Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 2:04 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 624 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 624 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will move farther offshore today. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KILM 031032 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 632 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm weather will continue today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week.

UPDATE
Patchy dense fog has developed across the forecast area. Dense fog is limited in scope and duration in many areas, thus a Special Weather Statement was issued instead of a Dense Fog Advisory. Fog should dissipate by 9AM EDT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Still expecting fog development this morning, although confidence in how much and how dense is lacking. Based on dewpoints, boundary layer moisture is a little lower than last night and boundary layer winds are a kt or 2 stronger. There are also cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Overall the environment seems less favorable for widespread dense fog, but still expect to see fog development in the pre-dawn hours, especially closer to the coast. Fog that does develop will be quick to dissipate, likely doing so before 8AM.

Bermuda High off the coast and weak shortwave ridge aloft will offer a glimpse of summer today. Very dry air aloft remains over the area with precipitable water struggling to hit 1". While these values aren't far off climatological values for early May, the bulk of the moisture is in the lowest 1k ft and above 25k ft. The RH between 700- 500mb drops into the single digits and a weak subsidence inversion is evident in forecast soundings.
Once fog and low clouds from this morning dissipate, skies will be mostly sunny with patches of high cloud moving across the area at times. Some flat cue is possible along the afternoon sea breeze, but the region will remain dry.

Late tonight a weak shortwave, bursting with moisture, rides up the west side of the shortwave ridge. This feature will spread cloud cover over the forecast area in the evening/overnight and may have weak, scattered convection just west of the area by 12Z Sat. Given the abundance of dry air and the relatively weak nature of this feature think measurable rain before 12Z Sat is unlikely. Temperatures will run well above climo today and tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Low level thicknesses depict a weak cold front stalled across the NC/SC Piedmont on Saturday. This weak boundary will be the focus for unsettled weather on Saturday and Sunday.

As ridging pushes offshore, weak vorticity will advect northward along the western extent of the ridge. This energy, while not robust, should help to develop showers and storms across the area on Saturday in conjunction with the existing surface front.

Mid and high level moisture advection across the region will result in thick cloud cover early in the day. Early cloud cover will impact instability, which model soundings continue to keep rather weak. There is some uncertainty in the position of the front and resulting coverage of showers and storms. Low level thicknesses are having a hard time depicting the front, even west of the mountains, therefore there is a question as to how far east the front will move. For now, I have kept PoPs fairly high with multiple potential forcing mechanisms and increasing moisture depth, even in weak instability.

Developing sea breeze along the coast and poor low level saturation on the western edge of a ridge should keep coastal areas mostly dry on Saturday. With a potential surface front near the I-95 corridor, PoPs increase rapidly as you head inland. Temperatures generally in the lower 80s due to the increased cloud cover.

Shortwaves on the western extent of the ridge will start to push eastward overnight with showers and a few remnant storms approaching the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 60s.

A similar day on Sunday, albeit with better saturation and resulting instability, particularly along the coast. High temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Developing sea breeze will increase shower chances. Less cloud cover overnight with similar morning lows; mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Maintaining shower and storm chances for Monday. This is especially true along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight.

Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, typical of a diurnal warm-season pattern.
High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday.

Southeastern US ridge amplifies on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing high temperatures well above normal. Lower 90s are expected each day. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Range of VFR to IFR visibility and ceiling across the region this morning. Majority of the area will be VFR by 12Z. A few sites may hold onto IFR beyond 12Z, but by 13Z all sites should be VFR. Light winds continue today with another round of fog and low stratus possible tonight, although looking more like it may be an MVFR event vs IFR, will depend on cloud cover overnight.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT.
Lightning is also possible.

MARINE
Through Tonight... Light southerly flow continues today as Bermuda High remains the dominant feature. Weak sea breeze will develop in the afternoon which may bump winds near shore to around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less continue to be a mix of a dominant southeast wind wave and a weak easterly swell.

Saturday through Tuesday Night... Bermuda high will maintain SE flow this weekend, becoming southerly on Sunday around 10 knots.
Winds increase early next week as winds turn S and SW. SW flow by Tuesday will increase to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet this weekend, increasing to 2-3 early next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:00 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:35 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
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New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:09 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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