Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM   Moonset 1:50 PM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 905 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday - .
Tonight - Western portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10. Eastern portion, S wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 10 seconds, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - Western portion, W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt late. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening.Sat - W to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Local gusts to 30 kt western portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds in the afternoon. Sat night - W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Sun night - NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Mon - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Tue - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ600 905 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1027 mb high was centered 1000 nm W of point conception. A 1003 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas. Gale force winds will continue until late tonight for the outer waters, then gusty winds likely across the entire waters starting Sat afternoon.

FXUS66 KLOX 030506 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1006 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
02/145 PM.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. Increasing onshore flow as well as greater coverage of night and morning low clouds and fog will bring cooler temperatures to all areas Friday through Sunday. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the area to the north this weekend with a chance for light precipitation later Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...02/1005 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures ranged from the warm 80s in the desert and interior valleys, to cooler 70s and 60s for the coastal plains and near the coasts. Marine layer clouds were limited to the coasts and coastal valleys south of Point Conception today, and kept temperatures cooler in these areas.

Tonight, marine layer clouds are returning to LA County from the coast to the coastal slopes and to portions of the Central Coast.
Sub-advisory level sundowner winds along western portions of the Santa Barbara south coast will likely limit clouds in this area.
Looking into Friday, the overall pattern remains nearly the same with little change in heights. Therefore, expecting similar highs as today.

The forecast looks on track, with minor changes increasing marine layer clouds at the coasts. In addition, temperatures were cooled for portions of the LA and Ventura County coasts where marine layer clouds are expected. Sundowner winds look sub-advisory tonight and tomorrow night, however increased wind gusts for the Santa Barbara south coast/Santa Ynez range to 35-45 mph for Saturday night.

***From Previous Discussion***

Going forward, the trends are decidedly cooler through the weekend as another late system upper low moves into northern California Saturday. Models have come to a good consensus on the track, moving it inland north of the Bay area before sliding south along the eastern Sierra Sunday. This track, though still mostly inland, has enough southerly over-water trajectory to create some light rain (around a quarter inch) across the Central Coast later Saturday into Sunday. Less certainty on the southern extent of rain but ensembles indicate just very light precip amounts (under a tenth of an inch) south of Pt Conception. In the meantime, expect to see increasing marine layer stratus Friday and especially Saturday with cooler temperatures.

Increasing onshore flow will lead to increasing west to southwest, especially Saturday afternoon across the mountains and deserts.
May need some low end wind advisories for those areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/217 PM.

The upper low will exit the area by Sunday night leading to warming temperatures Monday (3-6 degrees). Onshore flow will be much weaker and forecast gradients indicate the potential for some breezy north winds in the mountains and across southern Santa Barbara County early next week. After the warm up on Monday temperatures are expected to stay pretty steady next week with just minor day to day variations. Will likely have some marine layer clouds returning to coastal areas by mid week. Otherwise it looks like a fairly mundane weather pattern next week with very minimal impacts.

AVIATION
03/0316Z.

At 2327Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep with an inversion top at 4900 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs moderate confidence elsewhere.
Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KSMX and KSBA. There is a 20% chance for brief cigs at KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could arrive as low as BKN008 and will lift through the period. An east wind component of around 5 kt is possible 09Z-15Z Fri, but will likely remain below 10 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of cigs will arrive as early as 07Z tonight.

MARINE
02/919 PM.

In the outer waters, Gale Force winds are expected to drop of late Thursday night, followed by a long period of intermittent Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Gales are possible for the waters north of Point Conception (40% chance) late Fri afternoon thru late Fri night. Winds and will subside somewhat Sat morning, possibly even below SCA level. Then SCA level winds are expected much of the time Sat evening thru Tue, with a 40% chance of Gales Sun and Mon afternoon/evening.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds and seas will continue thru late tonight. Then, SCA level winds are likely during the afternoon/eve hours Fri and Sun through Tue (60-70% chance), with a 40-50% chance Sat afternoon/night.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in extreme western portions of the channel through late night hours and again Fri afternoon into night (50% chance). SCA winds likely for most of the channel Sat afternoon thru late Sunday night. There is a 50% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in NW portions (from Anacapa Island to Malibu) during the late afternoon/eve hours Fri. SCA level winds are likely during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Sun, especially in western portions, then there is a 40% chance Mon.
There is a 30% chance of gales Sun afternoon/evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Santa Barbara
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Thu -- 02:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:50 AM PDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:08 PM PDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
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Rincon Island
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Thu -- 05:00 AM PDT     4.39 feet High Tide
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Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM PDT     Moonset
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