Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guntersville, AL
May 3, 2024 4:51 AM CDT (09:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 3:14 AM Moonset 2:40 PM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 030933 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(Today)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A mid-level ridge will continue to shift southeastward and off the Atlantic Coast today, enabling a light (10-20 knot) WSW flow regime aloft to develop across the TN Valley (between the ridge to our southeast and a broad mid/upper-level trough to our northwest that will extend southward into the northern Rockies/Plains). In the low-levels, light southerly flow currently exists across our region to the south of a subtle surface trough extending from central TX east-northeastward through the Arklatex region and into northwestern TN/southwestern KY. Although dewpoints have recovered into the l-m 60s in this regime, an even richer tropical airmass will likely remain confined to the south of a nearly stationary marine warm front immediately inland from the central Gulf Coast. The onset of deep-layer warm/moist advection (aided by a 20-30 knot SSW low-level jet) has resulted in a fairly widespread coverage of rain and embedded thunderstorms early this morning (particularly across northwest AL).
Solutions from the 00Z CAMs are in general agreement that this axis of precipitation will continue to spread slowly eastward through the mid-morning hours, warranting high POPs region-wide through 14-15Z. After a temporary minima in the coverage of precipitation late this morning, additional but more scattered convection is expected to develop early this afternoon as the local airmass recovers in the wake of morning rainfall. Highs will not be quite as warm today (u70s-l80s) due to the impact of morning clouds and precip, but this should still be sufficient to produce CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, perhaps a bit higher in the west and a bit lower in the east (based on the lastest HRRR).
However, given weak deep-layer flow/shear, storms will be unorganized, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary impacts due to PWAT values in the 1.4-1.6 inch range.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Fairly high POPs will remain warranted across the region overnight, as broad scale vertical motions will increase slightly with the passage of a weak mid-level shortwave trough to our northwest. The risk for thunderstorms will remain highest this evening (prior to the onset of the diurnal cooling cycle), with a gradual transition to light rain expected by early Saturday morning. Due to the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer and only light southerly winds, patchy fog will be possible for many locations as well.
Present indications are that the general synoptic pattern across our region will change very little on either Saturday or Sunday, although with indications of low-amplitude shortwave ridging across the region on Saturday (in the wake of the shortwave trough), coverage of afternoon showers and storms will likely be somewhat lower compared to today. By late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, the marine warm front (discussed in the near term section) will begin to lift northeastward through the CWFA as a strong upper low tracking into the central Rockies induces surface pressure falls across the high Plains of eastern CO/WY. This will likely support a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Highs will be in the u70s-l80s once again tomorrow, before warming into the l-m 80s Sunday, and lows should remain in the l-m 60s through Monday morning.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday.
Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
VFR conditions early this morning will give way to increased cloud cover and lower ceilings as a slow moving front sweeps into the area. High chances (60-80%) of SHRA/TSRA are forecast during the day which will produce low-end VFR to MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. A few AWWs (and amendments) may be needed especially late this afternoon and evening due to TSRA activity.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(Today)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A mid-level ridge will continue to shift southeastward and off the Atlantic Coast today, enabling a light (10-20 knot) WSW flow regime aloft to develop across the TN Valley (between the ridge to our southeast and a broad mid/upper-level trough to our northwest that will extend southward into the northern Rockies/Plains). In the low-levels, light southerly flow currently exists across our region to the south of a subtle surface trough extending from central TX east-northeastward through the Arklatex region and into northwestern TN/southwestern KY. Although dewpoints have recovered into the l-m 60s in this regime, an even richer tropical airmass will likely remain confined to the south of a nearly stationary marine warm front immediately inland from the central Gulf Coast. The onset of deep-layer warm/moist advection (aided by a 20-30 knot SSW low-level jet) has resulted in a fairly widespread coverage of rain and embedded thunderstorms early this morning (particularly across northwest AL).
Solutions from the 00Z CAMs are in general agreement that this axis of precipitation will continue to spread slowly eastward through the mid-morning hours, warranting high POPs region-wide through 14-15Z. After a temporary minima in the coverage of precipitation late this morning, additional but more scattered convection is expected to develop early this afternoon as the local airmass recovers in the wake of morning rainfall. Highs will not be quite as warm today (u70s-l80s) due to the impact of morning clouds and precip, but this should still be sufficient to produce CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, perhaps a bit higher in the west and a bit lower in the east (based on the lastest HRRR).
However, given weak deep-layer flow/shear, storms will be unorganized, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary impacts due to PWAT values in the 1.4-1.6 inch range.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Fairly high POPs will remain warranted across the region overnight, as broad scale vertical motions will increase slightly with the passage of a weak mid-level shortwave trough to our northwest. The risk for thunderstorms will remain highest this evening (prior to the onset of the diurnal cooling cycle), with a gradual transition to light rain expected by early Saturday morning. Due to the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer and only light southerly winds, patchy fog will be possible for many locations as well.
Present indications are that the general synoptic pattern across our region will change very little on either Saturday or Sunday, although with indications of low-amplitude shortwave ridging across the region on Saturday (in the wake of the shortwave trough), coverage of afternoon showers and storms will likely be somewhat lower compared to today. By late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, the marine warm front (discussed in the near term section) will begin to lift northeastward through the CWFA as a strong upper low tracking into the central Rockies induces surface pressure falls across the high Plains of eastern CO/WY. This will likely support a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Highs will be in the u70s-l80s once again tomorrow, before warming into the l-m 80s Sunday, and lows should remain in the l-m 60s through Monday morning.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday.
Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
VFR conditions early this morning will give way to increased cloud cover and lower ceilings as a slow moving front sweeps into the area. High chances (60-80%) of SHRA/TSRA are forecast during the day which will produce low-end VFR to MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. A few AWWs (and amendments) may be needed especially late this afternoon and evening due to TSRA activity.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
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