Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 3:05 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 031046 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 646 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels will be a bit active with several shortwaves impacting the CWA through the short term period of the forecast.

500mb analysis shows ridging along the eastern seaboard with SW flow across much of GA. A couple of shortwaves are noted within the flow, one across far NE MS/NW AL, one across the ARKLAMISS and two stronger ones across across eastern TX/OK. Each one of these waves will bring the potential for shra and tsra to the CWA through the short term. Models do have trouble initializing these system, which impacts timing. The early morning shortwave could bring isolated shra to portions of north GA early this morning. Little, if any, measurable rainfall is is likely. The second shortwave, back over the ARKLAMISS, will most likely move through during the afternoon, helping to fire/sustain isold/scat convection this afternoon and evening. The stronger shortwaves back across TX/OK will continue to move east through the period within a slightly negatively tilted trough. This feature will likely impact the CWA on Saturday, bringing greater coverage of storms than today.

With PWATs in excess of 1.5" and very light BL winds (slow movement), thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

High temps the next couple of days will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

A fairly unsettled period will be ongoing at the start of the extended forecast period. Another in a series of shortwave disturbances within the midlevel near-zonal flow will traverse the region on Sunday and again on Monday, bringing continued elevated scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. Coverage will be diurnally enhanced, though some activity is likely to linger into at least through the evening. The threat for severe weather remains through this time given little in the way of dynamic support.

A drier time frame then returns by Tuesday into midweek as ridging increases aloft with any isolated PoPs relegated to far north Georgia through Wednesday. Temperatures will respond in kind with the warmest days of the week expected Tuesday-Thursday. High temperatures nudging the 90 degree mark are likely in many areas by Wednesday. Record highs appear unlikely at this juncture, but values will still be running some 10 degrees above normal for early May.

The shortwave ridging looks to break down by the end of the week with additional shortwave disturbances more likely to bring increasing rain chances again by the end of the period.

RW

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Sct-bkn mid level clouds likely for much of the day, but could go sct for a brief period this afternoon. There should also be a decent cu deck between 040-060 for much of today and into the overnight hours. Models are moving in some MVFR cigs around 12Z SAT and there is some potential for a brief period of IFR. Not confident, so will leave the IFR sct. Patchy sprinkles should may continue through mid morning before a short dry period.
Isold/scat afternoon shra/tsra possible. Winds will be SW during the day, and SE at night.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 78 62 84 / 30 60 60 60 Atlanta 66 79 64 84 / 30 70 50 60 Blairsville 61 73 59 78 / 50 70 60 70 Cartersville 63 79 61 84 / 30 60 40 60 Columbus 67 86 66 88 / 20 40 40 40 Gainesville 64 76 64 82 / 40 70 50 60 Macon 66 82 64 86 / 30 70 40 50 Rome 64 79 62 85 / 40 60 40 60 Peachtree City 64 82 63 85 / 30 60 50 50 Vidalia 68 82 66 86 / 40 40 40 60

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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