Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 2:05 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 902 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Overnight - S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 nm or less. Fri - SW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.Tue night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

AMZ200 902 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will move farther offshore tonight and Friday. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers or Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KILM 030055 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 855 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm weather will continue through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday, and our first heat wave of 2024 may develop late next week.

UPDATE/
Not a thing to change regarding tonight's forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure is situated just off the Carolina coast. Light southeast winds are being enhanced by today's seabreeze and may reach 10-15 mph at the beaches for a few hours late this afternoon.
Cumulus developing along and ahead of the seabreeze front have remained generally shallow due to copious dry air aloft, however at least a few convective showers have been able to develop near the Santee River with radar-measured echo tops near 19kft. Once the seabreeze dies away, very light to calm winds are expected overnight.

The biggest forecast concern tonight is the redevelopment of dense fog. The airmass is unseasonably humid and models show a shallow saturated surface layer developing very similarly to what we observed this morning. Fog should first develop along the coast south of Cape Fear, potentially before midnight. Low visibility will expand northward and inland after midnight, but may have some trouble making it west of Florence where the airmass will remain slightly drier. Certainty is almost high enough to raise a Dense Fog Advisory now for Horry and Georgetown counties, but I'll defer that decision to the next shift. Forecast lows tonight range from 60-65.

The fog depth should be shallow and it will burn off quickly on Friday. Expect another expansive cumulus cloud field during the afternoon and there's s slightly better potential for an isolated shower inland. Coverage should remain less than 10 percent which will not be mentioned in the forecast. Friday's forecast highs range from the upper 70s on the beaches to the upper 80s along and west of I-95.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Ridge moves offshore as a shortwave and front approach Fri night into Sat. Moisture will pool across the Carolinas in deeper southerly flow with pcp water values reaching up over 1.5 inches by Sat morning along and west of I-95 corridor. Any pcp should hold out until after daybreak on Sat, but model soundings do show mid to high clouds increasing through Fri night.
Soundings show mid to upper level moisture working its way down through the column into Sat aftn as instability increases with enhanced lift due to shortwave approaching from the west. With a southerly flow backing to the southeast on Sat, the sea breeze should see a good push inland and will remain the focal point for convection with less coverage as you move east in more stable air behind sea breeze. Coast may remain fairly dry Sat with only isolated convection and some mid to high clouds or cu present. By Sat night, showers will shift eastward with eastward moving shortwave. the coast may see there best chc of rain overnight into Sun. Some lingering shortwave energy should remain into Sun aftn with clouds and chc of convection again Sun aftn. Pcp water values increase up to 1.7 inches across the area through Sun aftn.

Increased cloud cover and moisture will keep afternoon highs in the low 80s most places and 60s for overnight lows. An approaching shortwave will maintain shower chances overnight as elevated instability remains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Shortwave will exit the coast Sun night with ridge building back up through the Southeast coast on Monday. A moist southerly flow will remain, but expect more localized sea breeze convection Mon aftn with lack of upper level support. Another shortwave will approach late Mon with convection flaring west of I-95 by Mon eve and tracking eastward through the night and offshore by morning as ridge builds back up through the Southeasts Tues into midweek. A S-SW flow will persist around high pressure over the Atlantic with mainly just isolated convection possible on Tues with subsidence increasing aloft.
Temps will be on the rise with H5 heights rising and plenty of sunshine. Temps Mon will hold in the mid 80s with convection and clouds, but by Wed, expect to top 90. The westerly component to the flow will add to downslope flow into midweek and will keep sea breeze pinned closer to the coast.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Still fairly confident that IFR fog develops along the coast and spreads inland overnight with LIFR cigs also possible. Guidance continues to be hesitant to bring it far enough inland to affect LBT but FLO still seems to have a good shot. VFR will quickly return at 13Z.

Extended Outlook...Early morning ground fog and low ceilings are possible Saturday and Sunday. Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT. Lightning is also possible.

MARINE
Through Friday...High pressure will remain just off the coast for the next 24 hours. Synoptic winds of only 5 knots will be enhanced by daytime seabreeze winds resulting in nearshore speeds increasing to near 10 knots. This enhancement is ongoing now, and should develop again on Friday. Seas are currently 1-2 feet and should change little through Friday.

Friday night through Tuesday...
Southerly winds will persist around high pressure over the Atlantic through the weekend into next week. The winds will initially be more S-SE, especially as they back near shore in Sat aftn sea breeze, but by early next week a SW flow will develop and increase up to 10 to 15 kts. Seas mainly less than 2 ft through Sat will increase up to 3 to 4 ft in increasing southerly flow into next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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