Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:13 AM   Moonset 2:41 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KLUB 031127 AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening along and east of the dryline as the left exit region of an 80 knot jet streak moves over West Texas (not particularly strong for jet level winds but is probably aiding in enhancing large scale lift). Low level moisture will continue to advect into the forecast area which will maintain surface dewpoints in the mid-60s in the Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle and mainly in the 50s for areas on the Caprock which again will prime the lower atmosphere for thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to form along the dryline in the afternoon and evening with forecast MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of about 40 knots in the moist sector supporting supercells capable of very large hail. Forecast tornado parameters (low level helicity) are not very impressive but a tornado cannot be ruled out in a well organized supercell. CAMs suggest initial discrete supercells which could produce very large hail and damaging winds. If storms continue to form, they may congeal into an MCS and begin to move east out of the forecast area.

3 AM satellite imagery shows patchy low level stratus across the southwest Texas Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains. This low level cloud cover is expected to continue to expand in coverage this morning with the low level moisture advection.
Latest model guidance indicates these clouds will clear or become patchy by the afternoon allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 80s for these areas. However, if stratus hangs around through the afternoon, thunderstorms may struggle to initiate.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The greatest forecast challenge in the long term remains a potentially stronger and faster FROPA on Saturday morning which may ultimately shift the heaviest rainfall farther south and southeast of our domain by later in the day. Nevertheless, the overall pattern by Saturday afternoon and evening remains favorable for widespread measurable rain in the wake of a morning FROPA which should slow or stall as it reaches the I20 corridor by the afternoon. Moist E-NE sfc-850 mb flow following FROPA along with an uptick in southerly moisture advection at 700 mb preceding a shortwave trough later in the day will all help push PWATs to 0.5" to 0.75" above normal. Given the abundant post-frontal stratus and the front stalling to our south, NBM's high temps were nudged lower and closer to the more representative MOS. Despite this, soundings still depict ECAPE around 1000 J/kg on average across the southern half of the CWA which could spur at least a marginally severe hail threat, although the greater threat remains heavy rainfall given anomalously high PWATs and improving ascent from the afternoon into the evening. Heavy rain probabilities are almost always trickiest with cellular convective modes such as this event as opposed to MCSs, so we won't get too invested in messaging 1" or greater rainfall probabilities particularly given considerable spread still evident in the LREF's QPF.

NBM's PoPs were scaled 10-20% lower beginning late Saturday night through the day on Sunday to account for stronger subsidence/height rises behind the upper trough. This drying should eventually secure some sunshine by Sunday, although lingering moist upslope flow will undoubtedly delay this process until later in the day and curb high temps. Deeper drying and windier conditions unfold on Monday as a vigorous upper low turns negatively tilted to our north and sweeps the dryline off the Caprock where some low PoPs remain. Uneventful weather then sets up from Tuesday and beyond south of a deamplifying upper trough, yet some re-amplification to this trough from Wed-Thu looks to send us a healthy dose of Canadian air with below-normal highs by the end of the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread IFR stratus with occasional LIFR decks should gradually erode and give way to VFR by early afternoon at LBB and PVW as a dryline draws closer. CDS meanwhile is unlikely to see any improvement beyond MVFR in this very moist upslope pattern. Latest signals for late day TS are now favoring areas SE of LBB, though ISO TS will be possible along the extent of the dryline through this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Lubbock, TX,