Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM   Moonset 2:18 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 031040 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 640 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Patchy fog and stratus possible early this morning. Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active weather for the weekend and early next week with showers and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Fog has become dense in the southeast Midlands, so advisory issued until 1000 am for that area....Pressure ridge centered off the coast of North Carolina is extending into the area this morning and will remain in place. This will result in weak south- easterly low level onshore flow. Expecting some stratus and fog toward morning focused in the southeast Midlands.
Guidance is favoring stratus but will monitor for areas of dense fog which could develop closer to dawn.

The upper ridge along the coast will shift a bit further east today as weak short wave troughs over the Deep South move over the area later this afternoon. Moisture will increase with south low level flow with precipitable water increase to around 1.5 inches, possibly a little higher by early evening. A more well defined upper trough will approach late tonight. These short waves may trigger scattered convection by this afternoon with a focus in the CSRA and SC Piedmont. The showers may progress into the central Midlands by the early evening. Overall instability appears weak with CAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Some weak low level convergence noted by late afternoon from the CSRA into the west Midlands. The latest CAMS show scattered coverage moving into the CSRA this afternoon and then moving into the central Midlands early this evening. Lower pops east of CAE through the day into the evening, but a few possible overnight.
Overall qpf light up to 0.10 in a few storms and focused in the west. High temperatures today should be a little cooler than yesterday with more cloud cover and potential for showers.
Stayed near the NBM temperature guidance, so highs in the mid 80s. Lows in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The axis of an upper level ridge shifts east of the forecast area early Saturday morning. Southerly flow strengthens, leading to increasing atmospheric moisture with PWAT values around 1.75 inches, well above normal for this time of year. PWAT values remain high through Saturday night with NAEFS percentile values 99 to 99.5 percent of climatological maxima. A series of shortwaves will move over the ridge on Saturday, first in the morning hours then a more pronounced shortwave later in the afternoon. The warm, moist low- level flow will lead to moderate instability on Saturday afternoon. Mean mixed layer CAPE values from the SPC SREF are around 1000 J/kg.

With a lack of a surface feature, we should see convective activity coinciding with the shortwaves, with first some scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon given the abnormally moist atmosphere. Weak 0-6km shear of 5 to 10 kts favors a pulse type storm mode and limits the threat of organized thunderstorms. A near saturated vertical profile also limits the threat of downburst winds so severe weather is unlikely. Convection will diminish through the night and into early Sunday morning as the second shortwave moves east. With extensive cloud cover and more widespread showers, highs on Saturday are expected to be closer to average or a little below average.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A persistent pattern of broad ridging over the Southeast is expected to continue through much of the long term. The WPC Cluster Prototype Page shows very little variance between ensemble members until late next week. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move through the region bringing unsettled weather for Sunday into early next week with at least a high chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Atmospheric moisture is likely to remain well above normal through Monday night with NAEFS PWATs at the 90th percentile of climatological maxima. Ensemble members diverge in atmospheric moisture for the remainder of the long term with some showing drier air pushing into the region for Tuesday. Temperatures will be well above normal next week, particularly the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s possible.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions at the moment. Restrictions in stratus, possible fog toward morning with highest probability at OGB.

High pressure along the coast. Shallow low-level moisture across the area this morning. Stratus/with some fog has developed across the area. Fog is dense at OGB, IFR,MVFR fog at other sites. But LIFR stratus is widespread or near terminals. The stratus should lift by 14z with scattered cumulus developing by late morning or early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to increase. Ceilings expected to be mid level this afternoon.
Winds will be light southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. Air mass becomes more moist in the afternoon and weakly unstable.
Convective models suggest some scattered showers or a thunderstorms may develop in Georgia and move into the CSRA near the AGS/DNL terminals in the afternoon. Coverage should be scattered. The showers may move into central SC but more likely after 00z Saturday. Low clouds may develop late tonight resulting in restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog possible through the period.
Increased potential for showers and thunderstorms over the Weekend into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ037-041- 135>137.
GA...None.

Jamestown Bridge
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Fri -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Fri -- 01:55 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,