Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Malibu, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/738 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area except for some stratus/dense fog across interior sections. Current sounding data indicates surface-based inversion.
As for winds, some locally gusty northeasterly winds, gusting 20-35 MPH, are observed in the favored passes and canyons.

For the immediate short term, no significant issues are expected.
Current interior clouds/fog should dissipate by late morning with sunny skies for all areas this afternoon. Northeasterly winds this morning will weaken through the day as surface gradients turn weakly onshore. As for temperatures, latest TEMP STUDY data indicates today should be noticeably warmer with weak offshore pressure gradients this morning and a warmer boundary layer.
Valleys should climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very little to talk about for the short term aside from some winds.

Currently skies are clear as all of cold air has wiped out the marine inversion. There is about 1 mb of offshore flow from the east and 4 mb from the north. This offshore push will generate some sub advisory 20 to 30 mph winds through some northerly oriented passes and canyons. The most notable effect of the offshore push will be on the temperatures. Almost all areas will see 5 to 10 degrees of warming today. Despite the warming max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal across the csts/vlys and 5 to 10 degrees across the mtns and interior.

Overnight and into Friday morning 4mb of offshore flow will develop from both the N and E. At the same time the upper level flow will also turn to the NE. A stronger Santa Ana will develop right along the typical wind corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to Mugu NAS). Right now it looks like the gusts will come in just under advisory criteria but if there is just a little more upper level support there will likely be low end advisory level gusts between 35 and 45 mph. Max temps will bump up another 3 to 6 degrees (higher across the interior of SLO and SBA counties). Most max temps will still remain a few degrees under normal.

A little ridge will nose in from the west on Saturday. More importantly the offshore flow will relax and will only be half as strong as it was on Friday. Skies will remain sunny most areas will warm a few more degrees, but the coasts will cool a degree or two as an earlier sea breeze arrives.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/250 AM.

There is better mdl agreement in the xtnd fcst today. Both the GFS and EC as well as most ensembles agree that Srn CA will remain in an upper air no man's land with broad troffing to the N as cut off low to the SW and a weak ridge to the SE. This pattern will continue through Tuesday. Decent onshore flow returns both to the east and north and this along with a little warming in the lower atmosphere will reestablish the marine inversion and night through morning low clouds look likely. The onshore flow will bring 2 to 3 degrees of cooling to the csts vlys on Sunday. Stronger onshore flow and some cool air from the interior will drop most max temps 4 to 6 degrees on Monday. This will make most of the cst/vly max temps in the 70s with just a few 80-81 degree readings. Tuesday will look very similar to Monday with maybe a degree or two of warming as hgts nudge up a tad.

The upper low that had been spinning to the SW will finally begin to move Tuesday night and it will transverse San Diego county during the day on Wednesday. Not expecting it to affect the weather much with only minimal changes to the marine layer and temperatures.

AVIATION
16/1733Z.

At 1654Z, the marine layer depth was 1000 ft. There was a weak inversion to 2500 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions, except for at KPRB, where there is a 40% chance for VFR conditions. High confidence in winds at all sites except for moderate confidence at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX.
Northeast winds (up to 20 knots) may surface at KSBP/KSMX through 00Z, and again from 06Z through the end of the period. LLWS is possible at KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY through the period, especially if winds remain aloft and do not surface.
Light to moderate turbulence is possible, especially over any mountain terrain.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF with no wind issues.

KBUR....High confidence in VFR conditions. Light to moderate LLWS and turbulence (especially over mountainous terrain) is possible as northeast winds within 2000 ft of the surface will be in the 30-40 knot range, but these winds are not expected to surface.

MARINE
16/746 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and outside the southern California bight, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds will continue across the waters from Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island through Friday morning. For the waters nearshore from Point Piedras Blancas south to Point Sal and out to 60 NM, northwest winds will increase to SCA levels by mid- day, continuing into tonight. Conditions will remain relatively calm Friday through the weekend, except for localized northeast winds 20-25 knots nearshore from Morro Bay south to Pismo Beach early Friday morning into the early afternoon. There is a moderate chance for SCA conditions early next week, but confidence in low as models have been trending seas smaller.

Inside the southern California bight, winds are expected to remain below SCA levels through early next week, with the exception of localized nearshore north to northeast SCA level winds between Point Mugu and Santa through late this morning, and between Rincon Point and Point Dume Friday morning, with low chances Saturday morning. With the localized nature of the winds, any chance of a Small Craft Advisory issuance is very low.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).