Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Latest mid-lvl water vapor imagery and 500mb streamline analysis reveals a dry and weak area of low pressure progressing through AZ which is embedded in a larger scale ridging pattern across much of the western and central U.S. This disturbance did bring some high clouds to southcentral AZ this morning, but skies have since cleared, allowing for temperatures to rise well above normal again this afternoon. Temperatures have already reached the upper 70s to 80 degrees across the lower deserts and are expected to reach record territory again in Phoenix this afternoon. The projected high of 81 degrees at Sky Harbor is expected to break the previous record of 79 degrees last set in 1969. Elsewhere across the forecast area, high temperature records will be threatened. In the wake of the passing shortwave trough today, temperatures will cool by a couple of degrees, mainly staying below 80 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, these highs will still be on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The eastern Pacific ridge off the coast of southern California and northern Mexico is forecast to strengthen again over the next couple of days as it gradually shifts eastward toward our region.
By Thursday into Friday, a weather system should be exiting the Northern Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains allowing the ridge to our west to move more into our region. As a result, ensemble mean H5 heights are shown to increase again closer to 585dm by Thursday or well into the 90th percentile of climatology.
This should push our temperatures upward again with some lower 80s likely possible on Friday. Models do still keep the center of the ridge off the Baja coast Friday into next weekend, but the ridge will still remain dominant over the Desert Southwest through at least the coming weekend providing continued dry and tranquil weather conditions. This may eventually come to an end later next week as guidance still supports a trough setting up off the West Coast by Christmas.

AVIATION
Updated at 2330Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period.
Winds at the Phoenix Metro terminals NW then become light and vbl at or below 10 kts overnight. At the SE California TAF sites, winds will primarily be out of the N-NW at KBLH and W-NW at KIPL.
Skies will remain mostly clear through Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Persistent high pressure across the region will result in warm and dry conditions all week. Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s will be common across the lower deserts, or 10 to 15 degrees above daily normals. Winds will overall be light and follow familiar diurnal patterns. MinRHs will range from 15-25% while overnight recoveries will generally remain fair up to 40-70%.

CLIMATE
Daily Record Highs

Phoenix ------- 12/15 79 (1969)

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.