Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM   Moonset 2:34 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 030721 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 321 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels will be a bit active with several shortwaves impacting the CWA through the short term period of the forecast.

500mb analysis shows ridging along the eastern seaboard with SW flow across much of GA. A couple of shortwaves are noted within the flow, one across far NE MS/NW AL, one across the ARKLAMISS and two stronger ones across across eastern TX/OK. Each one of these waves will bring the potential for shra and tsra to the CWA through the short term. Models do have trouble initializing these system, which impacts timing. The early morning shortwave could bring isolated shra to portions of north GA early this morning. Little, if any, measurable rainfall is is likely. The second shortwave, back over the ARKLAMISS, will most likely move through during the afternoon, helping to fire/sustain isold/scat convection this afternoon and evening. The stronger shortwaves back across TX/OK will continue to move east through the period within a slightly negatively tilted trough. This feature will likely impact the CWA on Saturday, bringing greater coverage of storms than today.

With PWATs in excess of 1.5" and very light BL winds (slow movement), thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

High temps the next couple of days will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

A fairly unsettled period will be ongoing at the start of the extended forecast period. Another in a series of shortwave disturbances within the midlevel near-zonal flow will traverse the region on Sunday and again on Monday, bringing continued elevated scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. Coverage will be diurnally enhanced, though some activity is likely to linger into at least through the evening. The threat for severe weather remains through this time given little in the way of dynamic support.

A drier time frame then returns by Tuesday into midweek as ridging increases aloft with any isolated PoPs relegated to far north Georgia through Wednesday. Temperatures will respond in kind with the warmest days of the week expected Tuesday-Thursday. High temperatures nudging the 90 degree mark are likely in many areas by Wednesday. Record highs appear unlikely at this juncture, but values will still be running some 10 degrees above normal for early May.

The shortwave ridging looks to break down by the end of the week with additional shortwave disturbances more likely to bring increasing rain chances again by the end of the period.

RW

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR through the overnight hours. Isold shra are possible around 12Z this morning. Better chances for shra or tsra later this afternoon and have adjusted the timing by an hour or so in the prob group. Winds will be a challenge. The predominate direction during the day will be SW but the predominate directions overnight and Friday night will be SE.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Med - high confidence all elements.
NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 83 63 78 62 / 30 30 60 60 Atlanta 83 66 79 64 / 30 30 70 50 Blairsville 76 61 73 59 / 40 50 70 60 Cartersville 82 63 79 61 / 40 30 60 40 Columbus 87 67 86 66 / 20 20 40 40 Gainesville 80 64 76 64 / 40 40 70 50 Macon 86 66 82 64 / 30 30 70 40 Rome 82 64 79 62 / 40 40 60 40 Peachtree City 85 64 82 63 / 30 30 60 50 Vidalia 89 68 82 66 / 30 40 40 40

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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