Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 2:19 PM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 259 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt this afternoon. Patchy fog early this morning.Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Sat - SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 73 degrees.

AMZ300 259 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the southeast through much of next week.

FXUS62 KCAE 030826 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 426 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Patchy fog and stratus possible early this morning. Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active weather for the weekend and early next week with showers and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pressure ridge centered off the coast of North Carolina is extending into the area this morning and will remain in place.
This will result in weak south-easterly low level onshore flow.
Expecting some stratus and fog toward morning focused in the southeast Midlands. Guidance is favoring stratus but will monitor for areas of dense fog which could develop closer to dawn.

The upper ridge along the coast will shift a bit further east today as weak short wave troughs over the Deep South move over the area later this afternoon. Moisture will increase with south low level flow with precipitable water increase to around 1.5 inches, possibly a little higher by early evening. A more well defined upper trough will approach late tonight. These short waves may trigger scattered convection by this afternoon with a focus in the CSRA and SC Piedmont. The showers may progress into the central Midlands by the early evening. Overall instability appears weak with CAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Some weak low level convergence noted by late afternoon from the CSRA into the west Midlands. The latest CAMS show scattered coverage moving into the CSRA this afternoon and then moving into the central Midlands early this evening. Lower pops east of CAE through the day into the evening, but a few possible overnight.
Overall qpf light up to 0.10 in a few storms and focused in the west. High temperatures today should be a little cooler than yesterday with more cloud cover and potential for showers.
Stayed near the NBM temperature guidance, so highs in the mid 80s. Lows in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The axis of an upper level ridge shifts east of the forecast area early Saturday morning. Southerly flow strengthens, leading to increasing atmospheric moisture with PWAT values around 1.75 inches, well above normal for this time of year. PWAT values remain high through Saturday night with NAEFS percentile values 99 to 99.5 percent of climatological maxima. A series of shortwaves will move over the ridge on Saturday, first in the morning hours then a more pronounced shortwave later in the afternoon. The warm, moist low- level flow will lead to moderate instability on Saturday afternoon. Mean mixed layer CAPE values from the SPC SREF are around 1000 J/kg.

With a lack of a surface feature, we should see convective activity coinciding with the shortwaves, with first some scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon given the abnormally moist atmosphere. Weak 0-6km shear of 5 to 10 kts favors a pulse type storm mode and limits the threat of organized thunderstorms. A near saturated vertical profile also limits the threat of downburst winds so severe weather is unlikely. Convection will diminish through the night and into early Sunday morning as the second shortwave moves east. With extensive cloud cover and more widespread showers, highs on Saturday are expected to be closer to average or a little below average.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A persistent pattern of broad ridging over the Southeast is expected to continue through much of the long term. The WPC Cluster Prototype Page shows very little variance between ensemble members until late next week. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move through the region bringing unsettled weather for Sunday into early next week with at least a high chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Atmospheric moisture is likely to remain well above normal through Monday night with NAEFS PWATs at the 90th percentile of climatological maxima. Ensemble members diverge in atmospheric moisture for the remainder of the long term with some showing drier air pushing into the region for Tuesday. Temperatures will be well above normal next week, particularly the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s possible.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions at the moment. Restrictions in stratus, possible fog toward morning with highest probability at OGB.

High pressure along the coast. Shallow low-level moisture across the area this morning. There is potential for stratus and or fog to develop near the coast by 08z and spread inland with focus east and southeast of CAE/CUB/AGS. The guidance is hitting the stratus harder than the fog at the moment, and given the relatively large dew point depressions currently, this may be on track. Either way there is the possibility of IFR or LIFR toward 12z...especially at OGB. So went with low ceiling/visibility restrictions at that terminal. Went with MVFR at AGS as fog may come up river with weak southeast flow. At other terminals VFR forecast with scattered stratus. Will monitor trends and adjust accordingly. The low clouds and fog should mix out mid morning with scattered cumulus and higher clouds through the day with south winds around 5 to 10 knots through the day. Air mass becomes more moist in the afternoon and weakly unstable. Convective models suggest some scattered showers or a thunderstorms may develop in Georgia and move into the CSRA near the AGS/DNL terminals in the afternoon. Coverage should be scattered. The showers may move into central SC but more likely after 00z Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog possible through the period.
Increased potential for showers and thunderstorms over the Weekend into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

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Cuckolds Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:23 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:35 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Ashepoo
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ashepoo, Ashepoo River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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