Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:21 AM   Moonset 1:15 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KFWD 030103 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 803 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening through Saturday Morning/

A fairly uneventful afternoon has ended, and dryline convection has started in full swing to our west. The storms currently ongoing as of 8 PM are fairly slow moving, and do not look to enter our western Big Country counties until closer to 9 PM. While CAM guidance over the afternoon has been fairly off-kilter in regards to storm initiation, the 23Z HRRR finally has a good handle on it. Over the rest of the evening, expect scattered storms to form off the dryline and move east, eventually moving into areas near and west of US-281. Forecast parameter space shows this environment has the lapse rates, shear, and instability present for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is on the lower side due to overall unfavorable low-level shear magnitude, but we cannot rule out an isolated tornado as these storms continue into our area tonight.

Further north in Oklahoma, a weak front will continue to advance southward, moving through North Texas overnight. Additional chances for showers and storms are expected mainly across our eastern counties, with the bulk of the activity likely further into Arkansas. The front will wash out as surface winds across the region shift east. Expect not much change for the sensible weather, with little in the way of cold advection. Overnight temperatures will be isolated by nocturnal stratus, bottoming out once again in the 60s.

NAMNest and HRRR guidance continue to highlight a cluster of showers and storms over southeast Central Texas late in the morning. With our southeastern counties having already experienced pretty considerable flash flooding, the re-aggravation of prior flooding will need to be watched through tomorrow afternoon. This will be especially true for Limestone, Freestone, and Leon counties, where up to around 5-7" of rain has fallen in the last several days.

By tomorrow afternoon, south-southeast flow will have been re- established across the region, aiding in the potential for warm advection showers and storms. The location of these storms will be highly dependent on where lingering outflows set up tonight, so have blanketed the region in at least isolated storm chances.
Later in the afternoon, dryline convection is once again expected to our west, moving east like the days before. Potential for severe-caliber hail and winds is expected with any stronger storm, while the tornado threat remains on the lower side due to unfavorable low level wind profiles. Current longer-range CAMs have really backed off on any established linear lines/clusters moving through. The HRRR remains the more pessimistic model, with clusters moving towards I-35 tomorrow night, and weakening as they move into East Texas. With how well the CAMs have been resolving the actual event lately, this will be a wait-and-see game once they initiate tomorrow.

Going into Saturday morning, expect another warm night in the 60s with cloudy morning skies.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/ /Friday Night and Beyond/

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area, but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight.

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20 Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35 as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low 90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the forecast over the next several days as we further refine the details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

VFR and southerly winds will prevail through the rest of this evening. MVFR cigs will surge northward late tonight, moving over and ACT around 05Z and D10 closer to 09Z. A weak front will move through D10 after midnight bringing a chance for surrounding showers/storms and east/northeast winds around 5 kts. Conditions will continue to deteriorate, with IFR cigs expected at ACT near daybreak and slightly reduced visibilities at all sites due to mist. There are lower chances for IFR cigs at D10, but are much higher further south. Additionally, just after daybreak, there are low probs for LIFR cigs at ACT, but are too low to include.
Tomorrow afternoon, ceilings will lift back to VFR closer to 22Z with southeasterly winds returning.

There are chances for late morning and afternoon convection tomorrow, but location is highly dependent on where leftover outflow boundaries and the weak front ends up. Model guidance continues to be in misalignment, and with this uncertainty on location, have refrained from a prevailing weather group at this time. This will be refined in further TAF issuances.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 83 69 82 68 / 60 20 30 60 60 Waco 66 82 69 80 68 / 40 30 20 40 50 Paris 64 81 66 80 65 / 50 30 20 60 50 Denton 63 82 66 81 66 / 70 20 30 60 70 McKinney 65 81 66 80 68 / 60 20 30 60 60 Dallas 67 83 69 82 68 / 60 20 20 60 60 Terrell 65 81 67 82 67 / 60 30 20 50 50 Corsicana 67 83 69 83 69 / 50 30 20 40 50 Temple 66 83 69 82 68 / 40 30 20 30 40 Mineral Wells 63 82 66 82 66 / 70 20 30 60 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,