Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 2:13 PM

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AMZ350 Waters From South Santee River To Edisto Beach Sc Out 20 Nm- 259 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 259 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the southeast through much of next week.

FXUS62 KILM 030807 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 407 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm weather will continue today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Still expecting fog development this morning, although confidence in how much and how dense is lacking. Based on dewpoints, boundary layer moisture is a little lower than last night and boundary layer winds are a kt or 2 stronger. There are also cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Overall the environment seems less favorable for widespread dense fog, but still expect to see fog development in the pre-dawn hours, especially closer to the coast. Fog that does develop will be quick to dissipate, likely doing so before 8AM.

Bermuda High off the coast and weak shortwave ridge aloft will offer a glimpse of summer today. Very dry air aloft remains over the area with precipitable water struggling to hit 1". While these values aren't far off climatological values for early May, the bulk of the moisture is in the lowest 1k ft and above 25k ft. The RH between 700- 500mb drops into the single digits and a weak subsidence inversion is evident in forecast soundings.
Once fog and low clouds from this morning dissipate, skies will be mostly sunny with patches of high cloud moving across the area at times. Some flat cue is possible along the afternoon sea breeze, but the region will remain dry.

Late tonight a weak shortwave, bursting with moisture, rides up the west side of the shortwave ridge. This feature will spread cloud cover over the forecast area in the evening/overnight and may have weak, scattered convection just west of the area by 12Z Sat. Given the abundance of dry air and the relatively weak nature of this feature think measurable rain before 12Z Sat is unlikely. Temperatures will run well above climo today and tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Low level thicknesses depict a weak cold front stalled across the NC/SC Piedmont on Saturday. This weak boundary will be the focus for unsettled weather on Saturday and Sunday.

As ridging pushes offshore, weak vorticity will advect northward along the western extent of the ridge. This energy, while not robust, should help to develop showers and storms across the area on Saturday in conjunction with the existing surface front.

Mid and high level moisture advection across the region will result in thick cloud cover early in the day. Early cloud cover will impact instability, which model soundings continue to keep rather weak. There is some uncertainty in the position of the front and resulting coverage of showers and storms. Low level thicknesses are having a hard time depicting the front, even west of the mountains, therefore there is a question as to how far east the front will move. For now, I have kept PoPs fairly high with multiple potential forcing mechanisms and increasing moisture depth, even in weak instability.

Developing sea breeze along the coast and poor low level saturation on the western edge of a ridge should keep coastal areas mostly dry on Saturday. With a potential surface front near the I-95 corridor, PoPs increase rapidly as you head inland. Temperatures generally in the lower 80s due to the increased cloud cover.

Shortwaves on the western extent of the ridge will start to push eastward overnight with showers and a few remnant storms approaching the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 60s.

A similar day on Sunday, albeit with better saturation and resulting instability, particularly along the coast. High temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Developing sea breeze will increase shower chances. Less cloud cover overnight with similar morning lows; mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Maintaining shower and storm chances for Monday. This is especially true along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight.

Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, typical of a diurnal warm-season pattern.
High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday.

Southeastern US ridge amplifies on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing high temperatures well above normal. Lower 90s are expected each day. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Still expecting IFR fog/ceilings to develop along the coast, although it may take a bit longer than last night. Boundary layer winds are slightly stronger compared to 24 hours ago, but do think coastal terminals will start seeing IFR develop around 09Z. IFR conditions will gradually spread inland, but may fail to reach LBT before sunrise. IFR that does develop will quickly dissipate with most areas VFR by 13Z. VFR persists through the day with light southerly winds seeing a bit of enhancement near shore from the afternoon sea breeze.

Extended Outlook... Early morning ground fog and low ceilings are possible Sunday. Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT.
Lightning is also possible.

MARINE
Through Tonight... Light southerly flow continues today as Bermuda High remains the dominant feature. Weak sea breeze will develop in the afternoon which may bump winds near shore to around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less continue to be a mix of a dominant southeast wind wave and a weak easterly swell.

Saturday through Tuesday Night... Bermuda high will maintain SE flow this weekend, becoming southerly on Sunday around 10 knots.
Winds increase early next week as winds turn S and SW. SW flow by Tuesday will increase to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet this weekend, increasing to 2-3 early next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Romain
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Fri -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:57 AM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romain, South Carolina, Tide feet

Five Fathom Creek entrance
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Fri -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:13 AM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:45 PM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:01 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Five Fathom Creek entrance, South Carolina, Tide feet

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