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FXUS64 KBMX 030049 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 749 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

This afternoon.

A mid-level shortwave was over the ArkLaMiss Region at midday while mid-level ridging was over much of the Southern and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure was centered to our northeast across much of the Carolinas and Southern Virginia.
Locally, there is the remnants of a weak low-level boundary that is only discernible by surface dew point analysis. This boundary generally extended from northwest to southeast along the Interstate 22 / U.S. Highway 280 corridor and latest satellite imagery depicts low to mid-level cumulus development near and northeast of this boundary. A few relatively shallow showers may eventually develop near/north of this diffuse moisture gradient with the lower-level cumulus through afternoon, but substantial dry air aloft generally above 700 mb will help limit vertical development. Highs will range from the upper 80s northeast to around 90 far southeast. Winds will increase from the south and southeast at 7-14 mph.

Tonight.

The mid-level shortwave is forecast to weaken with time as it moves over our area overnight, but enough forcing from this disturbance and the accompanying convective outflow boundary is expected to support isolated showers generally along and northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor with potential for a few showers across the southwest arching northeast to south of Anniston.
Scattered showers will be possible across our far northwest counties where a stray thunderstorm will be possible as well. Some patchy fog is forecast to develop before daybreak across the far southwest counties. Winds will be from the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s in the higher elevations east to the upper 60s southwest.

Friday.

The initial mid-level shortwave will continue to become more diffuse with time as it moves over East Tennessee and North- Central Georgia by mid-morning while a more defined shortwave approaches from the southwest, moving over the area toward mid to late afternoon. A cold front will become stationary to our northwest, extending from the Middle Ohio River Valley southwest through the Mid-South Region and extending further west into Central Texas. Chances for showers with some thunderstorms northwest will continue through the morning, with a decrease in coverage and intensity expected due to the departing shortwave before activity increases across all but our far southeast counties in the afternoon as the stronger shortwave arrives. Winds will become southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s far northwest to the upper 80s far southeast.

05

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

No changes in the forecast for this weekend through early next week. Several shortwaves will slide through the region over the weekend leading to continued rain chances. It's unlikely that it'll be raining nonstop, but nailing down when each wave of rain/thunderstorms move through the area will be challenging.
Otherwise, warm weather is expected through midweek.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this system so severe weather is not expected.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating.
Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow strengthens for end of this period.

16

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

Through the 24 hour forecast, conditions should generally be VFR.
There are a few widely scattered showers on the radar, but currently there are no lightning strikes being detected anywhere in C AL. TS potential should be low overnight. SW upper flow will allow for multiple ripples/shortwaves resulting in rounds of activity to move through with some waves of scattered showers at times tonight into Friday. Some TS may occur by Fri afternoon. Low probs of convection are present at MGM/TOI, but will leave out any mention for them for now as they will be the furthest removed.
There is a small prob of some reduced vsbys with a heavier shower, but that is too low to mention. Also, some minor VRB gusts are possible with the SHRA/TSRA, but severe storms are not anticipated.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with 40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and spread east through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 64 85 62 82 / 30 40 60 70 Anniston 64 85 63 83 / 20 40 60 70 Birmingham 67 84 64 83 / 30 40 60 60 Tuscaloosa 68 84 64 84 / 30 50 60 50 Calera 66 84 64 83 / 20 30 50 50 Auburn 65 85 66 83 / 20 20 20 60 Montgomery 65 87 65 87 / 20 20 20 40 Troy 63 87 65 87 / 20 20 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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