Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:27 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 030442 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1142 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday/

An active pattern is expected to continue across the Southern Plains into the weekend with periodic storm chances through Saturday. At this hour, a cluster of thunderstorms extends from near Hillsboro south toward Lampasas and these should survive for at least another hour or two given an unstable airmass. The main threat will be some locally strong wind gusts and hail along with very heavy rainfall through the rest of the overnight hours. For the remainder of the night, storm chances will be highest just downstream of the current convection with low probabilities of additional storms developing.

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place on Friday characterized by high theta-e air, weak capping, and generally weak low level wind fields. The main driver for additional convection will be a potential lingering outflow boundary from current thunderstorms ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma.
The high-res guidance suggests that some of this convection will spread south overnight and into our northeast counties by morning with an outflow boundary pushing south toward the I-20 corridor into the afternoon. In the absence of any strong forcing for ascent, this remnant boundary or boundaries from tonight's convection would serve as a focus for additional storms Friday afternoon. The favored area for this to occur would be east of I-35. Additionally, the dryline should be displaced farther to the west Friday afternoon where convection will likely develop across West Texas. We'll keep PoPs around 20% for most areas Friday with the exception of our eastern/southeastern counties. These areas may see a little better coverage of scattered storms.

Otherwise, we'll be watching West Texas convection late Friday evening as it makes a push toward our western counties. We'll show some slightly higher PoPs west of I-35 late Friday night for any remnant activity that may approach. On Saturday, a weak front will slide south through Oklahoma and into North Texas in conjunction with an approaching upper disturbance. This increasing forcing for ascent along with the front will likely lead to an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms. We'll have generally high PoPs across the region, but will refine the details over the next 24 hours. No widespread severe threat is currently forecast, but the environment will continue to support a few severe storms with a hail/wind threat. The flash flooding threat will be locally high with any slow moving thunderstorms through the weekend.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/ /Friday Night and Beyond/

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area, but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight.

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20 Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35 as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low 90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the forecast over the next several days as we further refine the details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /6Z TAFs/

Convection is primarily south of the D10 airspace at this hour and will likely remain there through the overnight hours. VFR cigs will lower to MVFR later tonight and persist through the mid morning hours before improving again. Thunderstorm coverage will be scattered on Friday and likely favoring areas east of the major airports through the afternoon. We'll be watching West Texas thunderstorm development late Friday as it makes a run for North Texas overnight. An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected on Saturday.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 83 69 80 68 / 40 20 30 60 60 Waco 66 81 68 79 68 / 30 30 20 50 50 Paris 65 80 65 79 65 / 50 40 20 60 50 Denton 65 82 66 79 66 / 30 20 30 70 70 McKinney 68 81 67 79 68 / 40 30 30 60 60 Dallas 67 84 68 81 68 / 40 30 30 60 60 Terrell 67 81 67 80 67 / 30 30 20 60 50 Corsicana 66 82 69 82 69 / 30 40 20 50 50 Temple 67 82 68 81 68 / 40 30 20 40 40 Mineral Wells 64 82 67 81 66 / 40 20 30 70 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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