Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 2:18 PM

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FXUS64 KSHV 031151 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 651 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Difficult forecast leads to a low confidence one in the short- term as shortwaves embedded in dirty southwest flow aloft and a myriad of convective outflow boundaries are resulting in havoc in not only the operational deterministic progs but in the HighRes CAMS as well. Best resort is to go with progs that have initialized well to current activity which rules out most of the deterministic progs and/or nearly half the CAMS.

The setup as described above is continued southwest flow aloft as the longwave trough remains across southern Canada into the Intermountain West with strong ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard.
This persistent ridging is making for a rather stagnant upper pattern across the Southern Plains. The development of a nocturnal, low level jet is helping to sustain convection across E OK currently with that complex forecast to continue moving south and east into our northern zones this morning, weakening as it does.
Outflow associated with this disturbance will likely serve as a focus for renewed convection later today with plenty of diurnal instability to work with. The HRRR which was followed closely for this short-term forecast is picking up on an embedded disturbance moving out of Central Texas later today with convection becoming numerous mainly near but especially south of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and N LA so have therefore oriented pops highest across this area through the daytime hours, limiting chance pops to our northwest third overnight in the proximity of yet another weak disturbance moving towards the I-30 Corridor overnight.

Saturday is another difficult call as our northern zones will likely be dealing with remnant MCS convection with at least scattered convection near and south of the I-20 Corridor once again tied mostly to diurnal heating. The good news is that widespread severe convection does not appear favorable today through Saturday but damaging wind gusts an an isolated large hail producing thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given the relatively steep mid-level lapse rates in place not to mention the convective outflow potential. PWATS will remain highest across our western half as well and relatively slow moving convection will of course pose a flooding theat as well but again, this should not be widespread through the short-term.

13

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

By Saturday Night, all eyes will be on a much stronger shortwave exiting the Tx Hill Country and moving into the Upper/Middle Red River Valley of N TX/S OK. Scattered convection entering our far northwest zones late Sat Night should become numerous across most areas during the day Sunday and once again, these could pose an isolated severe and/or flash flood threat during the day.

The East Coast ridge axis looks like it may finally pull up anchor and head offshore to begin the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper trough that enters to Pacific Northwest on Saturday moves into the Intermountain West on Sunday and opens up into the Southern and Central Plains for Monday. Enough upper forcing should be present across or northern half for scattered convection on Monday before we lose the upper level support for Tue into Wed. Followed the NBM pop wise Wed thru Thu but WSW flow aloft appears to continue and this results in a low confidence forecast once again as the NBM is not spitting out much in the way of pops Wed thru Thu and we all know what this flow can bring. NBM is continuing it's warming trend next week in the form of near 90 to the lower 90s Wed into Thu and if the drying trend is correct, this would put afternoon heat indices well into the 90s and even approaching 100 degrees in some locations. Summer appears to be starting way to early.

13

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Based on morning radar trends, convection across the airspace has averaged about 2-3 hours ahead of schedule from what the CAMs have advertised overnight. The bulk of the prevailing convection is oriented across the northern terminals near KTXK. Given the inconsistency of the guidance, this results in a difficult forecast to work through for aviation interests in the region. If trends continue, some breaking of the clouds may be possible through the afternoon before a return to mostly OVC and lowering CIGs this evening. Given closer T/Td relations, BR may be possible once more by the evening, and ahead of 04/12z.

RK

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 68 85 69 / 60 20 50 30 MLU 81 65 85 67 / 70 20 30 30 DEQ 80 62 81 64 / 50 20 60 50 TXK 81 66 83 67 / 40 20 60 40 ELD 78 63 84 64 / 60 20 40 30 TYR 81 68 82 68 / 60 20 60 50 GGG 81 67 83 68 / 60 20 50 40 LFK 81 68 85 68 / 80 20 40 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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