Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 2:58 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 030944 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 444 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal temperatures along with decent rain chances are expected through tonight. A rather weak surface ridge will continue to nose across our CWA from the east while the southern branch of the jet stream continues overhead resulting in southwest flow aloft. This will maintain our warm moist airmass with PWATs greater than an inch and a half along with mid to upper 60F dewpoints. Subtle disturbances within the southwest flow aloft will combine with our moist airmass and daytime heating to result in scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be in our west and across our north. Although there will be a distinct diurnal trend to the convection, rain chances will linger tonight especially in the north. /22/

This Weekend: Isolated to scattered rain and storm chances will continue throughout this weekend, expect them to be in the mid-range (30-50%). An upper-level low moving east/southeast will send a cold front towards our area, nearing early Saturday morning with it being just west in the high plains. Storms and showers in the high plains will be strong and linear along the front, losing strength as they move east downstream, mostly dissipating by the time they reach our area. Remnant storm activity has the possibility of redevelopment in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day.

Next week: By next week our weather pattern evolves into the typical western trough to eastern ridge pattern as temperatures will be abnormally hot. Southwesterly flow and surface ridging will help a strong surface high build into the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will be at risk of nearing record high temps for the month of May as they could be as high as the low to mid 90s range, this will be our first taste of summer-like temperatures. The next chance of rain will be the end of the workweek. Upper level troughing in the western plains will become negatively tilted and provide a source of multiple disturbances through late week. As a front pushes down into the region it is possible for some strong to severe storms to form along the front. This event is possible however confidence isn't very high at this time as there is a good degree of uncertainty this far out in the forecast. /KP/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Local radar showed -SHRA in vcty of GWO that wl come in vcty of GTR by 07Z. Elsewhere MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop at most TAF sites by 09Z but in the se LIFR conditions wl be psbl. Conditions wl improve to VFR by 18Z but sct-numerous TSRA/SHRA wl develop and affect TAF sites during the aftn. VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 00Z Sat. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 82 65 86 66 / 50 30 30 20 Meridian 85 64 88 65 / 40 30 40 10 Vicksburg 81 65 86 67 / 60 30 30 20 Hattiesburg 84 65 89 66 / 30 20 30 10 Natchez 80 65 85 66 / 70 20 20 10 Greenville 80 66 84 68 / 70 40 30 30 Greenwood 81 66 84 67 / 80 50 40 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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