Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM   Moonset 12:59 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KEPZ 022331 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 531 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Very warm temperatures with breezy winds are expected to continue into the weekend. A storm system will pass north of the region on Sunday which will increase wind speeds and fire weather concerns.
The region will remain very dry so no rainfall is expected to accompany this system.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Currently, zonal flow is taking place aloft, which is allowing for very dry, warm, and breezy conditions to predominate. Ridging will build in on Friday which will reinforce the aforementioned conditions. The dry line is east of our region and will remain just out of reach for the rest of the forecast period. A couple of small shortwaves will pass through the region over the next few days but will allow for a few clouds at best and mostly in higher elevations. Mainly southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface will continue for the rest of the forecast period. This will allow for continued warm air advection which will keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

An upper level trough will pass north of the region on Sunday and into Monday. No rain chances are expected with this event. This will trigger lee cyclogenesis over the Rocky Mountains. However, the surface low that results will be over the northeastern region of Colorado, which is not as favorable for winds. Our wind speeds will still increase (20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph) due to tighter pressure gradients, but won't be high enough for any wind products. The south and southeastern regions will have lighter winds due to the 700mb jet being situated to our northwest. These wind speeds combined with the very dry and warm weather will allow for critical fire weather conditions on Monday and Sunday, which is the largest concern for this period. Into next week, a second bout of lee cyclogenesis will result in a weak surface low over southeastern Colorado. This will keep winds breezy (15-20 mph) for the first half of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Mainly SKC expected other than few mid-high clouds. W-SW winds gusting up to 20kts linger early this evening before subsiding to AOB 8kts overnight. Gusts return tomorrow afternoon to near 20kts from basically the same direction as today.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Elevated fire weather concerns for the rest of the week. RH values will be very low at between 5-10% for the lowlands and 10-15% for higher elevations for the entire period due to continued southwesterly to westerly flow. High temperatures will be very warm in the low 90s and upper 80s for the whole period.
Wind speeds will be breezy (10-15mph) for the rest of the week. On Sunday and into Monday, a Pacific storm system will pass north of the region which will allow for a low pressure system to develop over northeastern Colorado. This will increase wind speeds to around 20-25 mph with gusts of up to 30-35 mph with the southern regions having lighter winds. Fire weather concerns will become critical for Sunday and Monday as a result. No rain chances are expected with this storm system. The next half of next week will have breezy winds due to a weak low pressure system over southeastern Colorado that will influence the region. Ventilation rates will be excellent for the entire period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 60 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 54 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 48 89 51 90 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 52 90 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 87 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 85 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 44 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 42 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 46 78 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

El Paso, TX,