Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 3:16 AM   Moonset 2:48 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 404 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 404 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface high pressure continues to ridge into the marine area from the east. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 031231 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 731 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Some scattered to occasionally broken low clouds and also some patchy light fog across the region this morning, mainly in the MVFR category.
A few isolated locations have briefly been IFR or lower, but conditions at those locations are already improving. Should primarily be VFR conditions for the remainder of the day and into this evening, except for around scattered afternoon showers and storms over inland areas where IFR conditions could briefly occur. Fog potential could be a little higher again tonight, with some dense fog possible with conditions at IFR or lower at times overnight. Surface winds primarily light southeast to south through the period. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The more widespread high cloud cover that we noted in yesterday mornings discussion did indeed increase over the area, and as expected has limited widespread dense fog development across the region so far this morning. These higher clouds are moving east across the area, but beginning to clear somewhat over our MS counties. Some patchy light fog is expected across the area through around 9 AM this morning, but the only locations where any dense fog may briefly develop will be over our western zones where the high clouds are thinning. At this time we don't anticipate that we will need a Dense Fog Advisory for any portion of our area this morning as any dense fog that may develop will probably be somewhat localized and brief in nature. Models do indicate that the mid/high cloud cover will not be as thick or widespread across the region tonight however, and there is a better signal for the potential return of more widespread dense fog late tonight into early Saturday morning.

Otherwise, the forecast area remains between an upper ridge along the east coast and troughing over much of the western CONUS, maintaining a southwest to west upper level flow across our area.
At the surface, high pressure off the southeast coast will ridge back west into our area and keep a south to southeasterly low level flow over the area through the next couple of days. Combined with daytime heating, weak ripples in the flow aloft may provide enough forcing for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms both today and Saturday, primarily over the western and northern portions of our forecast area. These storms will generally be short-lived given the influence of the ridge. Coverage of showers and storms may be a tad higher on Saturday due to greater available moisture as southerly flow persists, but PoPs should be no more than about 30 percent either day. For both days, activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

Daytime high temperatures will continue to range from the mid to upper 80s inland, to the low to mid 80s coastal, both today and Saturday, although there may be a few low 90s over interior locations on Saturday. Lows tonight will mainly be in the middle 60s across most of the area, but a few lower 70s possible along the immediate coast and barrier islands. DS/12

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A general zonal to, at times, northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected through the extended period as upper ridging begins to build over the Gulf and a few embedded, weak shortwaves move overhead. At the surface, large high pressure over the western Atlantic remains as the dominant feature, keeping our region under a persistent southerly flow through the entire period.

Daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from one of the shortwaves aloft, and ample moisture in place from the persistent southerly winds at the surface, should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop, primarily over interior areas during the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday. Weak shear in place will help to keep convection disorganized and pulse- like in nature, typical of what we see during a general summertime pattern. As is the case for this type of convection, cannot rule out one or two stronger storms that would be capable of producing gusty downdraft winds, mainly as a result from outflow and sea breeze boundary collisions. Rain chances begin to lower on Monday and are out of the forecast by midweek as the upper ridge axis begins to build northward into our area.

With the ridge building, very warm, summer-like temperatures are expected across the region, especially as we get into the middle of next week. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s through Tuesday, increasing to the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, heat indices by Thursday may climb into the upper 90s for several interior spots. Lows through Monday night will generally range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. Lows moderate further by midweek with low to mid 70s expected by Wednesday night. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through, at least, the middle part of the week. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface high pressure continues to ridge into the marine area from the east. Bay waters will have a light to moderate chop through the period. Seas offshore generally remain 2 feet or less over the next few days, but increase to around 2 to 3 feet late in the weekend and into the early part of next week due to the slight increase in winds. Winds will be a little higher and occasionally gusty each afternoon near the coast in association with the daily sea breeze circulation. A few showers or storms over the bays and inland waterways this weekend. Generally no significant hazards to small craft expected, however. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 84 69 86 67 86 69 85 70 / 20 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 Pensacola 82 70 83 69 84 71 83 72 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 Destin 81 70 82 70 82 72 83 72 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 88 66 89 65 89 65 88 66 / 20 10 30 10 20 10 10 0 Waynesboro 85 66 88 65 88 65 89 68 / 30 20 30 10 30 10 20 0 Camden 87 66 87 66 88 65 88 67 / 20 20 30 20 30 20 20 0 Crestview 88 64 89 64 89 65 88 66 / 10 10 20 10 20 0 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Fri -- 03:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:44 AM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:11 PM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Fri -- 03:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:39 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:51 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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