Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 2:42 PM

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FXUS64 KSJT 031127 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening

Even with the showers and thunderstorms we've seen over the past few days, moisture is still plentiful across the area. Low clouds are already overspreading much of the area early this morning and should stay in place through the mid/late morning before mixing out. As the boundary layer warms through the day, we will see large scale destabilization across the area. With dew points ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, MLCAPE values by early afternoon will be on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg. Similar to the past few days, shear is still going to be on the more marginal side, especially in the low to mid levels around 30-35 kts. Storms are expected to initiate off of the dryline which should be in the vicinity of the Permian Basin by mid afternoon. Storms will likely go up quickly should remain discrete initially. Very large hail will be the main threat with the initial development along with a subsequent damaging wind threat.
While the tornado threat is generally on the low side thanks to weak low level flow, we will have to watch boundary and storm scale interactions as these may be able to enhance local conditions and make tornadic development more favorable (similar to what we saw yesterday). Storms are expected to grow upscale with time, likely becoming a more linear feature where a transition to more of a wind threat is expected. Though, given the favorable thermodynamic profiles, large hail will still remain possible through the duration of the storms lifecycle. These storms will be efficient rainfall producers as noted by Pwat values over 1.25 for nearly the entire area. Though the storms should be moving fast enough to limit flash flood potential, many of our northern and eastern counties are already decently saturated thanks to rain events over the past week or 2 so it won't take much to potentially create some problems.

High temperatures today will range from the lower 80s across the Big Country and Heartland, locations that will remain socked in cloud cover for longer, to the lower 90s in the Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. Clouds will rebuild across the area tonight, behind the storms, keeping low temperatures mild in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be the main issued through the weekend, ahead of unusually hot conditions for next week.

Air mass remains very unstable for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Most models depict fairly widespread thunderstorm initiation by Saturday afternoon across the Permian Basin and South Plains and then quickly rolling into West Central Texas late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Widespread convection may end up decreasing the severe threat, but increasing the heavy rainfall threat. Right now, appears the greatest severe threat will be across the Concho Valley west into the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos ahead of the front and in an area that may see a little more sun before the storms develop.

By Sunday, multiple rounds of convection may begin to take its toll on the air mass and make it a little harder to destabilize.
Widespread convection once again though with the remnants of the frontal boundary draped across the area. Highs may still in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area.

Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday will begin to add up, and portions of the area will see very heavy rainfall. Where is the question, and does the heavy rainfall occur on areas that have already seen some decent totals over the last week. No Flash Flood Watch at this point, but after we see where todays convection ends up, we may need to consider something.

Main upper level trough pushes across the Southern Plains by Monday afternoon, leaving a ridge aloft to set up across the area.
Latest model blends are showing mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday as dry and hot pattern prevails.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Fairly widespread MVFR to LIFR ceilings have covered the area. It's not as dense as initially indicated with scattered VFR ceilings poking through every once and awhile. Visibilities range from VFR at KABI and SJT to LIFR at KBBD. These will likely lift into the high-end IFR to VFR range in the coming hours. All sites should see ceilings lift back to VFR between 16-18Z (maybe earlier if the breaks in cloud cover continue). Winds will be out of the east to southeast today with some sites seeing gusts to around 20 kts by late afternoon. Chances for showers and storms return late this afternoon and evening across the area. Have given a first guess at timing for the sites but this will most likely need to be refined and updated with further hi-res guidance. Sub-VFR ceilings are expected to build back in after the storms though there remains uncertainty in just how low these ceilings will go.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 83 62 80 61 / 30 40 70 90 San Angelo 90 64 85 63 / 30 30 60 80 Junction 92 67 87 65 / 20 20 30 70 Brownwood 83 66 81 63 / 20 30 60 80 Sweetwater 84 62 79 61 / 40 50 80 90 Ozona 89 65 84 63 / 30 30 40 70 Brady 84 65 81 63 / 20 30 50 80

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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