Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 2:22 PM

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FXUS64 KHGX 030506 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Complex forecast continues tonight into Friday morning...while the main MCS has moved east out of the area, a surface boundary lingers in its wake. This is observed with the current line of showers training east through the Houston Metro. For tonight into Friday forecast PWAT values still remain elevated, but the depth of moisture availability is more shallow than what has been available over the last 24 hours. Activity for tonight into Friday is expected to be more scattered in coverage, as opposed to the organized structure that moved through SE Texas today. While that does provide a note of positivity, this is also where the uncertainty lies. Tonight's activity is projected to occur after midnight into Friday morning, and will be heavily dependent on where smaller scale boundaries, pockets of stronger moisture convergence, and higher PWAT values set up, so it is difficult to say which locations will see the isolated higher amounts. At this point current thoughts are that the most likely area for higher totals will be concentrated south of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall totals are expected to generally remain in the 0.5"-2.0" range with isolated amounts of 3.0-4.0" possible.

With the additional expected rainfall, uncertainty of where higher amounts will fall, and the saturated soils from today's rainfall, the decision has been made to keep the Flood Watch in effect through Friday afternoon. Austin and Colorado Counties have been removed from the Flood Watch.

Areal flood warnings are in effect and rivers are forecast to continue to rise (read more about that in the hydrology section below). Please continue to avoid driving through flooded roads, do not drive around barricades, and pay attention to instructions from local officials with regards to any evacuations.

Rainfall chances will continue to decrease through the day Friday.
Friday night will feature mostly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Adams

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

On Saturday afternoon, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly for far N/NW areas, elsewhere it should remain dry as a shortwave tough moves mainly north of the area.
Another more significant mid/upper tough will move across northern portions of the area on Sunday and will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms to SE Texas - mainly along and north of I-10.

Early next week, the focus shifts to drier and warmer weather, with above normal temperatures expected all week. By Tuesday, max temps will reach 90 inland and heat indices will peak in the 95 to 100 degree range. Expect the heat to build during the week with max temps reaching the mid 90s and heat indices peaking in the low 100s by midweek.

Wood

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

While MVFR ceilings are starting to settle in across SE TX tonight, shower/storms across Central TX are continuing to make their way to the east. Inital model runs are indicating that this activity could reach the W/NW portions of the CWA as we approach sunrise. Did keep with the mention of VCSH during the very early morning...then tran- sitioning to VCTS for the afternoon. S to SE winds will remain some what elevated at 4-9kts tonight...11-19 kts by tomorrow afternoon.
41

MARINE
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Seeing an outflow boundary affect the upper coast early this afternoon, but these NW winds are temporary, and moderate onshore winds will return and prevail through the forecast period. In general, the onshore winds will remain around 15 kts to occasionally 20 kts.
Will continue the caution statement for the evening hours tonight with seas 5 to 7 feet over the offshore waters and 3 to 6 feet over the nearshore waters.

There is a chance for showers and storms, some could become strong, through Friday morning. During the weekend, most of the rainfall is expected to remain inland. Tranquil weather conditions expected next week as mid to upper level ridging builds over the region.

Wood

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood stage:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate forecast to go to Major - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor forecast to go to Major - Trinity River (Romayer): forecast to go to Major - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Moderate forecast to go to Major - East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): forecast to go to Major - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major - San Jacinto (Sheldon): forecast to go to Major - Peach Creek (Splendora): Minor forecast to go to Major - Caney Creek (Splendora): forecast to go to Major

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

Wood

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 84 71 85 / 30 40 20 20 Houston (IAH) 72 84 72 85 / 50 50 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 80 / 50 40 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-212-213-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:33 AM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:12 AM CDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Point Barrow
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:48 AM CDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:14 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:48 PM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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