Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM   Moonset 2:33 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 022312 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 612 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A slowly moving boundary can be seen on radar near New Braunfels extending southeast into Gonzales. This boundary has served somewhat of a focus for shower and isolated thunderstorm development in this general area over the last several hours. High-res models continue to struggle with making sense of this overly saturated chaotic atmosphere with storms primarily driven off of mesoscale features.
Most of the CAMs show a lull in activity in the late afternoon hours, but not too convinced with this quite yet and will leave some low PoPs in the forecast through the late afternoon hours. The main focus for additional activity this evening will be to the northwest once again near a surface low near Abilene. This activity may track into our northern Hill Country and northern I35 corridor counties this evening. Can't rule out some strong to severe activity as the storms make it into South-Central Texas around 10 pm and the latest Day 1 Outlook from SPC has this area in a Level 2 out of 5 (slight)
risk. This activity should diminish by 1 AM or so.

For the rest of the overnight period, patchy fog, isolated showers, or drizzle will be possible through the morning hours. Low temperatures will be warm once again, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
For tomorrow, expect another day of shower and thunderstorm chances to primarily be driven by mesoscale processes for the most part for our eastern half in a chaotic and moist airmass. There is some signal for a decent chance of storms moving into our Rio Grande counties from the west as some upper support arrives to the area in the form of a weak shortwave. There is a level 1 (marginal) risk in the Day 2 outlook for this activity. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s and 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be mainly favored in the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande tomorrow night and will keep 20-30 PoPs there. Otherwise, lows will be back in the upper 60s to middle 70s across the area.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep southwesterly flow over TX through the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs will move through this pattern generating chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Convection will initiate along a dryline in west TX and over the mountains in Mexico and move toward the east. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the northern and western parts of our CWA There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear for storms to be strong to severe. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf bringing dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the first half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with highs reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the CWA and upper 90s to near 105 over the west.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Showers and IFR ceilings have been tough to break at SAT and SSF early this evening. Suspect that will continue through sunset, but there is a chance MVFR recovery could be for the taking at both sites before going IFR beyond 04Z. The same can be said at AUS where IFR CIGS are expected as early as 04Z with LIFR CIGS looking likely after 06-07Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF. DRT will have a couple hours at IFR, but VFR ceilings should return by late morning. Meanwhile, at the I-35 sites, have kept mention of thunder out for now as confidence is too low in introducing a PROB30 group and not high enough for even a VCTS tomorrow. Any storms that form our west this evening are unlikely to make it that far east. VCSH has been introduced at all sites beyond 18-20Z Friday as afternoon convection is possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 70 85 71 86 / 30 30 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 84 70 85 / 30 30 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 86 71 89 / 20 30 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 68 83 69 83 / 30 30 20 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 96 74 92 / 10 40 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 83 69 83 / 40 30 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 72 88 70 89 / 20 20 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 84 70 87 / 30 30 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 83 72 86 / 40 30 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 86 72 87 / 20 20 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 73 87 72 89 / 20 20 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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