Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 1:16 PM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 915 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Monday night through Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 915 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis -
a high pressure ridge well northeast of the waters will maintain a southeast flow over the waters through the upcoming weekend. Afternoon and evening wind surge expected Friday due to the sea breeze. The high pressure ridge moves well to the east by Monday. This along with the approach of a weak cold front will yield a more southerly flow over the waters Monday and Tuesday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 02, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
71 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of saint augustine beach. 92 nautical miles east northeast of jacksonville beach. 86 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 030024 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 824 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Enhanced deep moisture, with PWATS near 1.4 inches, located over the western zones of the forecast area and good convergence combined with MLCAPE of about 1000 J/kg continue to produce scattered, generally weak convection. Heavy rain and gusty winds are the main impacts.
Activity is generally centered near or west of I-75 corridor as of 8 pm. Looks like activity should mostly be dissipated by midnight.
Continued to advertise patchy to areas of fog tonight but may trend toward more coverage and lower visibility in the fog based on the guidance that is currently available. Will update our briefing to show this with the best chances of fog over the eastern half of the forecast area.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Still anticipating development of a few showers, isolated t-storms, with west-coast sea breeze in NW FL peninsula late this afternoon...
otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Continued mention of patchy fog toward dawn. Current low temperature forecast Tonight looks good...with mid 60s inland and around 70 coast.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Low level high pressure ridging will remain stubborn for Friday, which will overall tend to limit convective coverage despite a consistent sea breeze influence and adequate layer moisture.
Though still will expect isolated to widely scattered showers and a few t'storms Friday, mainly around the I-95 corridor similar to today. Convection should wean after sunset, with the potential for some overnight and morning fog once again into Saturday Morning given the pattern in place. Saturday, a rather slow moving mid level shortwave will slide across the general area in the zonal flow aloft, which will result in higher chances of daytime convection compared to Friday. Expecting the highest coverage to be over more inland southeast GA and the Suwannee River area, dropping off further east and southeast as the sea breeze boundary penetrates further inland. Not expecting a severe threat given the flow regime aloft, though a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with MLCAPE near or slightly above 1000 J/kg.

Temperatures will be very warm once again Friday, especially inland with the onshore flow quickly affecting areas approaching the coast. Upper 80s to around 90 inland, with low to mid 80s approaching the coast east of I-95. With the higher coverage of showers and t'storms Saturday, highs will be overall lower - in the mid to upper 80s inland and low 80s at the coast.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Generally onshore flow with surface high pressure sitting well offshore in the Atlantic should continue overall diurnal convection chances for the end of the weekend, and likely into the start of next week. Guidance also continues to move a weak impulse across the general area around Monday to Tuesday, though confidence is still lower than usual as the placement and magnitude of the shortwave remains in question. High pressure ridging builds further westward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week as a high pressure ridge also builds aloft.
Therefore, an overall increasingly dry and warmer trend should coincide for this period, possibly approaching record highs by Wednesday and/or Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Some low threat of -TSRA at GNV over the next 1-2 hours but otherwise mostly clear into late tonight. Rather good chances of fog expected at JAX, VQQ, and CRG tonight and have trended lower with the vsby.
Lower confidence for vsby problems at SSI but indicated MVFR possible.
Next TAF update will be able to fine tune forecast. After the fog dissipates by 13z-14z Friday, VFR clouds expected and precip chances are too small to add any VCSH or VCTS at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Stationary high pressure centered well north of the waters will maintain a southeast flow over the waters through the upcoming weekend. Afternoon and evening wind surges are expected today and Friday due to the sea breeze. The high moves eastward Monday. This along with the approach of a weak cold front will yield a more southerly flow over the waters Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 66 90 67 85 / 0 20 30 60 SSI 67 82 69 81 / 0 0 10 30 JAX 65 87 66 85 / 0 0 10 30 SGJ 67 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 30 GNV 64 90 64 87 / 10 10 10 50 OCF 65 91 66 89 / 20 10 0 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Seacamp Dock
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     6.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seacamp Dock, Cumberland Island, Georgia, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:21 AM EDT     2.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

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