Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 3:17 AM   Moonset 2:50 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 911 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog late. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 911 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 030447 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1147 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

While most locations remain at VFR levels late this evening, some pockets of MVFR/IFR stratus have developed along the coast. Expect these low ceilings to gradually increase overnight with IFR cigs possible at times. Confidence in the extent and duration of IFR cigs is lower than normal given abundant mid level cloud cover.
Even more uncertain is the potential of fog formation. Given cloud cover, expect low stratus to be more predominate than fog.
However, cannot rule out patchy IFR/VLIFR vsbys at times. A return to predominate VFR conditions is expected by mid Friday morning.
Isolated to scattered diurnal convection is possible along and west of I-65 Friday afternoon. Another round of low stratus/fog is likely late Friday night, but much of that will occur after 06z Saturday, so it's not reflected in this TAF issuance. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 904 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/

New UPDATE

UPDATE...

Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Overall forecast is on track and no changes were needed. A shortwave is beginning to dampen out as it moves into Alabama tonight. A few showers occurred earlier in inland SE MS/SW AL, but those have quickly faded away this evening. Cannot completely discount an isolated shower developing across the region late tonight with the passage of the shortwave, but chances are very low. This shortwave has brought abundant cloudiness into the region and this makes for an uncertain fog forecast overnight.
Latest guidance indicates the best potential for fog will likely be across the western FL Panhandle overnight and this is reflected well in the forecast. Otherwise, fog looks to be patchy in nature given the persistent clouds. Will continue to monitor trends overnight, but for now, confidence is too low to issue a Dense Fog Advisory.

It will be a warm night across the region with lows only dropping into the 60s. Locations along the immediate coast may not fall below 70. Summer is right around the corner. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/

New AVIATION

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Most locations are at VFR levels to start the evening with abundant high level clouds streaming into the area. However, intermittent periods of MVFR cigs have developed across coastal AL back into coastal MS. Periods of MVFR cigs are likely through the night across the region. Given this and the abundant higher level clouds, uncertainty in the development of IFR cigs and fog is quite high. For now, we have not included any predominate IFR conditions in the TAFs, but IFR cigs are possible in the 09-15z time frame. The potential for IFR or lower vsbys with fog is lower given the cloud cover. A return to predominate VFR conditions is expected by mid Friday morning. Isolated to scattered diurnal convection is possible along and west of I-65 Friday afternoon.
34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast area remains between an upper ridge along the east coast and troughing over much of the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure off the southeast coast will keep southerly flow over the area through the next couple of days. Weak ripples in the southwest flow aloft may provide enough forcing for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. However these storms will generally be short-lived given the influence of the ridge. The better chances for this activity will be along our western and northern zones. Similar conditions are anticipated for Friday, though the coverage of storms may be a tad higher due to greater available moisture as southerly flow persists. For both days, activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s, though dewpoints will remain in the 60s, keeping heat indices from climbing above the 90 degree mark.

As for the overnight hours, the potential for fog will exist again tonight, with the better chances closer to the coast. Ensemble probabilities show less chance (~30%) for fog tonight, compared to yesterday's forecast, but given light winds and overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 60s, I wouldn't be surprised if locally dense fog occurs. Due to a lower confidence, will hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, but one may be needed before the morning commute. /73

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Flow aloft will become more zonal by Saturday, with persistent southerly flow allowing a steady stream of moisture across the area. Several shortwaves will move through the zonal flow aloft over the weekend and aid in the development of diurnally driven convection both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. As is typically the case, locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds will be possible with any storm that does develop. Given the lack of any large scale forcing, convection will remain disorganized and relatively short-lived. Storms will diminish shortly after sunset, with the loss of daytime heating.

As we head into the new work week, upper ridging will build into the area, keeping the area rainfree through at least mid week.
With several days of continuous southerly flow, along with upper level height rises, above normal conditions are anticipated for much of next week. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the hottest day of the period expected on Wednesday. Given the moisture in place, heat indices will near the triple digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s, providing some relief to the hot conditions. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Patchy fog, dense in some locations, will be possible over bays, sounds, and near shore waters on Friday. Any fog that does develop will dissipate by the mid to late morning hours. Light onshore winds will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. Slightly higher winds (up to 15 knots at times) will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. /73

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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