Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Roads, LA
May 3, 2024 3:43 AM CDT (08:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM Moonset 2:05 PM |
GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon.
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and Thunderstorms will develop through the morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland. Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 030457 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1157 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Earlier convection that was primarily over western portions of the CWA has dissipated. The dissipation process did produce about a 20-30 minute surge of winds that weakened as it moved eastward.
Gusts that were in the 30-40 mph range at Baton Rouge and New Roads had diminished to around 25 mph as it reached Interstate 55.
the next few hours should be dry, but the earlier forecast and at least some of the convection allowing models show potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to western portions of the area by sunrise Friday. Won't change that portion of the forecast for now, as the 00z LIX sounding was rather moist at 1.87 inches. While there's likely some brief mid-level drying, forecast soundings show that moisture returning pretty quickly to the west.
Also continues to be at least a low end threat of fog prior to sunrise over southwest Mississippi, but that will require the cirrus overcast currently over the area to depart and cirrus upstream to remain to the west.
Update coming out shortly to handle evening forecast trends, with little change in the actual forecast beyond midnight.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Rather difficult forecast as convection has periodically gotten into the CWA before quickly dissipating as it pushed farther east.
This makes sense as the mesoanalysis showed the theta e axis was over the Atchafalaya and as storms work across it they began to weaken. Also the best LL convergence and upper lvl divergence was back to our west. The best mid lvl forcing hung around the coast and to our west-southwest. This has allowed some stronger storms to continue to push east along the coast but still as they worked east they quickly weakened. CAMs have been all over the place from not having anything moving in to bringing the weakening squall line through almost the entire area. We are somewhere between with showers and a few storms getting into the area and now as far east as I-55 but we do anticipate these to continue to weaken. However with broad lift still streaming in from the west- southwest flow aloft we could still pop off a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across the area.
Fog will be a possibility again tonight but if rain is able to quickly develop during the overnight and early morning hours dense fog should not be as much of a problem but areas of moderate fog with patchy dense can not be ruled out.
Biggest question in the short term is tomorrow. A lot of the guidance is indicating a decent shot of rain for the western half of the CWA and many want to get things going rather early. There is even some indication that there could be pockets of heavy rain.
Overall not too concerned about that threat however, given what occurred over seTX and swLA the environment is set up for locally heavy rain but that still should be west of us. So what is leading to this development which could begin overnight to our west and move into the area during the mid to late morning hours.
Honestly this is a very difficult question to answer and it could be something as simple as a subtle s/w. Having a hard time finding it in the WV. The next best source of lift is located in the mid lvl jet streaming from the north-central Gulf wsw across Mexico and coming out of the Pac but that next piece of strong lift would get to the LA coast by 2/3z tonight and that is not it unless convection start WAY earlier than what any guidance is hinting at. It looks like the support would be coming out of the 4 corners and should be moving across the TX/OK panhandles in the next 3-6 hours. Abundant moisture is in place with PWs around 1.5 and approaching 1.8 overnight with most of the area at or abv 1.7 before midday Friday. Other favorable features will be the diffluence aloft with what could be a coupled jet like feature develop over LA west of the MS River. So right now the biggest question is can we get something to develop and does it initiate to our west or over the western portions of the CWA If there is enough support to spark some sort of MCS many other features are there for locally heavy rain. Locally for our area the antecedent conditions are rather dry and we can likely handle some decent rain. The problem would be if storms train over any area that has very poor drainage or if we get a storm that anchors itself over a place like BR or southwestern Wilkinson county and tries to back build.
Storms should come to an end during the afternoon with s/w ridging Friday night. We then move into weak zonal flow through the weekend with little to no concerns for rain but temperatures will be warming. Highs this weekend will likely be in the mid to upper 80s and we could see some heat index readings in the lower 90s but honestly this won't be that bad compared to what we could be looking at late next week as models want to say hello to the 90s and we aren't talking about and we aren't talking about grunge, hip-hop, or Pokemon. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Anomalously warm conditions are the biggest headlines for next week, especially going into mid next week. Zonal flow continues for the southeast CONUS but ridging will start to build in from the Gulf of Mexico. Although a few weak shortwaves will pass through parts of Louisiana, precip chances will remain relatively low. Both temperatures and dew points are expected to climb with high temperatures being in the low to mid 90s and dew points getting into the 70s. Records on Wed are possibly threatened, the NBM has mid 90s in Baton Rouge and New Orleans (record is 92 and 91, respectively). Regardless of smashing records or not, it'll definitely be a full dose of summer weather. -BL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Currently no convection over the local area, with the closest precipitation well back in eastern Texas. KBTR and KHUM currently with MVFR ceilings, while remaining terminals are currently VFR.
Expect MVFR ceilings to be the prevailing condition by about 09z, but can't rule out IFR conditions. Currently appears that if there is a most favorable terminal for fog overnight, it would be KMCB, but even there, the NBM probabilities for 3SM or less are only 20 percent, and around 10 percent for less than a mile, with remaining terminals 5 percent or less.
Main issue is when and where convection may occur, and there are about as many solutions as there are convection allowing models.
There are several that indicate convection returning to western portions of the CWA by sunrise, and that fits with the general forecast that we inherited. Forecast soundings show sufficient moisture at KBTR by 12z, and a subtle shortwave moving toward the area. Will continue the trend of convective potential during the morning and mainly early afternoon hours with MVFR ceilings as a prevailing condition. Not particularly confident that convection makes it as far east as KASD/KGPT. Then no precipitation beyond 00z Saturday, but may still have MVFR ceilings.
MARINE
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Outside of convection everything is rather quiet in the Gulf.
High pressure will dominate through much of the forecast and remained centered off to our east-northeast. This will allow the persistent light to slightly moderate onshore flow to continue.
Convection really only looks to be an issue for the next 24 to 36 hours and than that drops off. With any storm locally higher winds and seas can be expected. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 79 63 84 / 20 60 20 30 BTR 70 84 68 88 / 30 60 10 20 ASD 70 83 67 87 / 20 30 10 10 MSY 72 83 72 87 / 30 30 0 10 GPT 72 82 69 84 / 10 20 10 10 PQL 69 85 67 87 / 10 20 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1157 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Earlier convection that was primarily over western portions of the CWA has dissipated. The dissipation process did produce about a 20-30 minute surge of winds that weakened as it moved eastward.
Gusts that were in the 30-40 mph range at Baton Rouge and New Roads had diminished to around 25 mph as it reached Interstate 55.
the next few hours should be dry, but the earlier forecast and at least some of the convection allowing models show potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to western portions of the area by sunrise Friday. Won't change that portion of the forecast for now, as the 00z LIX sounding was rather moist at 1.87 inches. While there's likely some brief mid-level drying, forecast soundings show that moisture returning pretty quickly to the west.
Also continues to be at least a low end threat of fog prior to sunrise over southwest Mississippi, but that will require the cirrus overcast currently over the area to depart and cirrus upstream to remain to the west.
Update coming out shortly to handle evening forecast trends, with little change in the actual forecast beyond midnight.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Rather difficult forecast as convection has periodically gotten into the CWA before quickly dissipating as it pushed farther east.
This makes sense as the mesoanalysis showed the theta e axis was over the Atchafalaya and as storms work across it they began to weaken. Also the best LL convergence and upper lvl divergence was back to our west. The best mid lvl forcing hung around the coast and to our west-southwest. This has allowed some stronger storms to continue to push east along the coast but still as they worked east they quickly weakened. CAMs have been all over the place from not having anything moving in to bringing the weakening squall line through almost the entire area. We are somewhere between with showers and a few storms getting into the area and now as far east as I-55 but we do anticipate these to continue to weaken. However with broad lift still streaming in from the west- southwest flow aloft we could still pop off a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across the area.
Fog will be a possibility again tonight but if rain is able to quickly develop during the overnight and early morning hours dense fog should not be as much of a problem but areas of moderate fog with patchy dense can not be ruled out.
Biggest question in the short term is tomorrow. A lot of the guidance is indicating a decent shot of rain for the western half of the CWA and many want to get things going rather early. There is even some indication that there could be pockets of heavy rain.
Overall not too concerned about that threat however, given what occurred over seTX and swLA the environment is set up for locally heavy rain but that still should be west of us. So what is leading to this development which could begin overnight to our west and move into the area during the mid to late morning hours.
Honestly this is a very difficult question to answer and it could be something as simple as a subtle s/w. Having a hard time finding it in the WV. The next best source of lift is located in the mid lvl jet streaming from the north-central Gulf wsw across Mexico and coming out of the Pac but that next piece of strong lift would get to the LA coast by 2/3z tonight and that is not it unless convection start WAY earlier than what any guidance is hinting at. It looks like the support would be coming out of the 4 corners and should be moving across the TX/OK panhandles in the next 3-6 hours. Abundant moisture is in place with PWs around 1.5 and approaching 1.8 overnight with most of the area at or abv 1.7 before midday Friday. Other favorable features will be the diffluence aloft with what could be a coupled jet like feature develop over LA west of the MS River. So right now the biggest question is can we get something to develop and does it initiate to our west or over the western portions of the CWA If there is enough support to spark some sort of MCS many other features are there for locally heavy rain. Locally for our area the antecedent conditions are rather dry and we can likely handle some decent rain. The problem would be if storms train over any area that has very poor drainage or if we get a storm that anchors itself over a place like BR or southwestern Wilkinson county and tries to back build.
Storms should come to an end during the afternoon with s/w ridging Friday night. We then move into weak zonal flow through the weekend with little to no concerns for rain but temperatures will be warming. Highs this weekend will likely be in the mid to upper 80s and we could see some heat index readings in the lower 90s but honestly this won't be that bad compared to what we could be looking at late next week as models want to say hello to the 90s and we aren't talking about and we aren't talking about grunge, hip-hop, or Pokemon. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Anomalously warm conditions are the biggest headlines for next week, especially going into mid next week. Zonal flow continues for the southeast CONUS but ridging will start to build in from the Gulf of Mexico. Although a few weak shortwaves will pass through parts of Louisiana, precip chances will remain relatively low. Both temperatures and dew points are expected to climb with high temperatures being in the low to mid 90s and dew points getting into the 70s. Records on Wed are possibly threatened, the NBM has mid 90s in Baton Rouge and New Orleans (record is 92 and 91, respectively). Regardless of smashing records or not, it'll definitely be a full dose of summer weather. -BL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Currently no convection over the local area, with the closest precipitation well back in eastern Texas. KBTR and KHUM currently with MVFR ceilings, while remaining terminals are currently VFR.
Expect MVFR ceilings to be the prevailing condition by about 09z, but can't rule out IFR conditions. Currently appears that if there is a most favorable terminal for fog overnight, it would be KMCB, but even there, the NBM probabilities for 3SM or less are only 20 percent, and around 10 percent for less than a mile, with remaining terminals 5 percent or less.
Main issue is when and where convection may occur, and there are about as many solutions as there are convection allowing models.
There are several that indicate convection returning to western portions of the CWA by sunrise, and that fits with the general forecast that we inherited. Forecast soundings show sufficient moisture at KBTR by 12z, and a subtle shortwave moving toward the area. Will continue the trend of convective potential during the morning and mainly early afternoon hours with MVFR ceilings as a prevailing condition. Not particularly confident that convection makes it as far east as KASD/KGPT. Then no precipitation beyond 00z Saturday, but may still have MVFR ceilings.
MARINE
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Outside of convection everything is rather quiet in the Gulf.
High pressure will dominate through much of the forecast and remained centered off to our east-northeast. This will allow the persistent light to slightly moderate onshore flow to continue.
Convection really only looks to be an issue for the next 24 to 36 hours and than that drops off. With any storm locally higher winds and seas can be expected. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 79 63 84 / 20 60 20 30 BTR 70 84 68 88 / 30 60 10 20 ASD 70 83 67 87 / 20 30 10 10 MSY 72 83 72 87 / 30 30 0 10 GPT 72 82 69 84 / 10 20 10 10 PQL 69 85 67 87 / 10 20 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHZR FALSE RIVER RGNL,LA | 2 sm | 28 min | SW 04 | 7 sm | Clear | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.88 | |
| KBTR BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN, RYAN FIELD,LA | 20 sm | 50 min | E 03 | 9 sm | A Few Clouds | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.87 |
Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM CDT 1.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:31 AM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 09:09 AM CDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:44 PM CDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM CDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM CDT 0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM CDT 1.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:31 AM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 09:09 AM CDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:44 PM CDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM CDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM CDT 0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM CDT 1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:31 AM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM CDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:19 PM CDT 1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM CDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:11 PM CDT 0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM CDT 1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:31 AM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM CDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:19 PM CDT 1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM CDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:11 PM CDT 0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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