Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 030640 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 140 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A slowly moving boundary can be seen on radar near New Braunfels extending southeast into Gonzales. This boundary has served somewhat of a focus for shower and isolated thunderstorm development in this general area over the last several hours. High-res models continue to struggle with making sense of this overly saturated chaotic atmosphere with storms primarily driven off of mesoscale features.
Most of the CAMs show a lull in activity in the late afternoon hours, but not too convinced with this quite yet and will leave some low PoPs in the forecast through the late afternoon hours. The main focus for additional activity this evening will be to the northwest once again near a surface low near Abilene. This activity may track into our northern Hill Country and northern I35 corridor counties this evening. Can't rule out some strong to severe activity as the storms make it into South-Central Texas around 10 pm and the latest Day 1 Outlook from SPC has this area in a Level 2 out of 5 (slight)
risk. This activity should diminish by 1 AM or so.

For the rest of the overnight period, patchy fog, isolated showers, or drizzle will be possible through the morning hours. Low temperatures will be warm once again, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
For tomorrow, expect another day of shower and thunderstorm chances to primarily be driven by mesoscale processes for the most part for our eastern half in a chaotic and moist airmass. There is some signal for a decent chance of storms moving into our Rio Grande counties from the west as some upper support arrives to the area in the form of a weak shortwave. There is a level 1 (marginal) risk in the Day 2 outlook for this activity. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s and 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be mainly favored in the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande tomorrow night and will keep 20-30 PoPs there. Otherwise, lows will be back in the upper 60s to middle 70s across the area.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep southwesterly flow over TX through the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs will move through this pattern generating chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Convection will initiate along a dryline in west TX and over the mountains in Mexico and move toward the east. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the northern and western parts of our CWA There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear for storms to be strong to severe. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf bringing dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the first half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with highs reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the CWA and upper 90s to near 105 over the west.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Radar echoes are trending downward early this morning as low clouds thicken and continue to develop. IFR is already in place along I-35 and will continue through most of the morning hours. Some patchy fog and drizzle can also be expected given saturated conditions in the boundary layer. Will need to monitor for some brief, VLIFR conditions around sunrise, but will not include in the forecast at this time.
DRT is currently MVFR, but will trend downward into IFR around 09Z.
Slow improvement is anticipated by early afternoon as daytime heating is realized and cigs rise. We kept the mention of VCSH for all sites in the afternoon hours and opted for a PROB30 group for DRT as convection over the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande develops and moves eastward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 85 71 86 70 / 30 10 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 70 85 69 / 30 10 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 71 89 70 / 30 10 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 83 69 83 68 / 30 20 30 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 74 92 73 / 40 30 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 69 83 68 / 30 10 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 88 70 89 69 / 20 20 20 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 70 87 69 / 30 10 20 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 72 86 72 / 30 10 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 72 87 71 / 20 10 20 50 Stinson Muni Airport 87 72 89 72 / 20 10 20 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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