Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tyndall AFB, FL

SHORT TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

A tricky forecast setup is in store for tonight. Surface high pressure will traverse the southeast US and move into the Carolinas by Tuesday morning. This positioning of the high will not be the most ideal setup for radiational cooling except for our northern areas and low spots in the inland Panhandle. Meanwhile, the 925 mb high is a little further to the east, which brings in some low-level warm, moist air along easterly to southeasterly flow. You can see this already on visible satellite with clouds moving in from the Atlantic along the Florida East Coast. The question is how far west do these clouds and moisture advect. The 12Z HRRR shows a very well- defined moisture boundary basically from Port St. Joe to Tallahassee to Valdosta. North and west of this line, 925 mb RHs are in the single digits and teens. South and east of this line, 925 mb RHs are greater than 60 percent.

For tonight's forecast, the best chances of a hard freeze are across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and inland low spots in the Florida Panhandle. This is where a Freeze Warning (for a hard freeze) is now in effect. Residents in these areas should protect the 4 P's: People, Pets, Pipes, Plants. The (Hard) Freeze Watch was canceled for Washington County FL as well as much of the I-75 corridor in south GA. Clouds and moisture increasing in the Big Bend should lead to warmer temperatures in these areas with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Still, a light freeze is expected for most of the area outside the (Hard) Freeze Warning, and residents should take precautions to protect people, pets, and plants.

It should be noted that especially the strip from Tallahassee to Valdosta is particularly uncertain. If the moisture doesn't make it there, then temperatures could be colder than forecast. Or, if it is delayed, we may see temperatures fall fast with radiational cooling before bouncing back up at some point overnight once the moisture arrives.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

By Tuesday, moisture begins to return as high pressure slides far enough east to get southeasterly flow re-established. We'll still have a cool air mass in place, but we will be on a quick warming trend. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Lows Tuesday night will mainly be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with maybe an isolated light freeze in part of our Georgia counties west of Albany. Patchy fog will be possible as moisture moves into our still somewhat cool air mass.

The next shortwave approaches the area on Wednesday, then hangs around until getting kicked out by the next longwave trough Thursday into Friday. While we won't see rain until Wednesday night, it will be rather cloudy for most of the day. Rain chances begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the next cold front.
We'll have to watch the storms Thursday and Thursday night as forecast soundings show large curvature in the hodographs with a strong low-level jet developing. However, instability is currently very low to nil. With the better forcing to our north, this could be a setup for low-topped rotating storms. More refinement to the forecast will come over the coming days.

Otherwise, mild weather is anticipated with highs returning to the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. There doesn't appear to be much cooler air behind this front heading into the weekend with freezing temperatures highly unlikely (less than 10% chance) for Friday night.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Light to moderate northeasterly breezes continue this afternoon.
Winds go nearly calm near sunset with light winds generally out of the northeast to east. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail throughout the period.

It's worth mentioning that there is a low chance, less than 20%, of some MVFR ceilings impacting VLD and TLH Tuesday morning.
However, with the low chance and low confidence, have kept any mention of it out of the TAFs with this issuance.

MARINE
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Winds and seas continue to subside through this afternoon. Gentle to moderate east-southeast breezes will prevail from tonight through Thursday with seas around 1 to 3 feet. By Wednesday night into Thursday, rain chances will increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will clock around of out of the southwest late Thursday, then become northwesterly to northerly behind the front Friday. There is currently a low chance of advisory-level winds Thursday night into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Increasing moisture returns Tuesday with light east to southeast transport winds for much of the area. Min RH values will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia to the mid 40s to low 50s in the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. The light winds with low mixing heights will yield poor dispersions for most of the area Tuesday. Moisture increases further on Wednesday, but dispersions will still be poor Wednesday with light winds and low mixing heights. By Thursday, rain chances will increase ahead of the next cold front, though chances of a wetting rain are still low (20-30%). Dispersions will be fair on Thursday as transport winds increase out of the southeast.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

While some rain is in the forecast, drought impacts will continue to persist. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days will be around a quarter to half an inch with reasonable high-end totals around three-quarters to one inch. Flooding is not anticipated. For more information regarding drought and local impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 49 33 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 51 33 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 47 25 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 45 23 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 47 29 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 54 35 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 51 39 59 49 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ007-009-011-013.

High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for FLZ114-115.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ120>128-130- 131-142>145-155-156.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.