Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:48 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

GMZ335 Expires:202405032015;;531434 Fzus54 Khgx 030705 Cwfhgx
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 205 am cdt Fri may 3 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz330-335-032015- matagorda bay-galveston bay- 205 am cdt Fri may 3 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Today - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly this morning. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Sunday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 205 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas generally between 3 and 6 feet are expected through early next week. Seas around 7 ft will be possible at times well offshore. Winds and seas may be high enough during this period to require small craft exercise caution. Showers and storms are also possible today and tonight. Winds and waves would be higher in and near Thunderstorms.

FXUS64 KHGX 031104 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 604 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The current "lull" in shower/storm activity across SE Texas looks to be coming to an end, as isolated shower/storms have begun to develop across the region. High-resolution models indicate rain chances increasing throughout this morning as a shortwave passes overhead, tapping into rich PWs of 1.75-2.00" to bring more showers/thunderstorms across the region. While the mesoscale environment will make things messy, guidance seems to hint at two main "clusters" of storms developing with this next wave. The first cluster appears to develop over the southern half of our CWA, talking on an E/NE track. While closer to the primary moisture axis, models seem to suggest more modest rainfall rates in this cluster.
Meanwhile, the second cluster looks to develop further north over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, tacking Southeasterly. Forcing with this system appears to be a tad more robust, located in the vicinity of the left exit region of the upper level subtropical jet, which also appears to coincide with a convergence zone with the 925mb LLJ during the afternoon. Some short term guidance suggests that rainfall rates would be higher in this cluster.

Crest shows swaths of soil moisture in excess of 40% in areas north of I-10, peaking in excess of 70% over portions of Walker & Trinity counties. RFC 1hr FFG for much of this same area is around 1.5-2.5", though lower values of under 0.5" encompass portions of Liberty/Harris counties. Overall the heavy rainfall threat will still encompass most of SE Texas, with a Flood Watch remaining in effect for most areas North of I-10 until 7 PM Tonight. The threat of heavy rainfall remains greatest early this morning, where WPC still has SE Texas under a Moderate (level 3/4) to Slight (level 2/4) risk of Excessive Rainfall. The threat of excessive rainfall subsequently decreases during the late morning/early afternoon to a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) Risk. Flood Warnings and River Flood warnings are ongoing across the region, and any additional heavy rainfall may further exasperate hydrological problems. Be careful while driving and avoid any flooded roadways.

There looks to be a short reprieve from rainfall later today, with showers/storms tapering off this evening/tonight. Guidance still suggests the possibility of showers/storms developing again early Saturday morning, though the risk of excessive rainfall remains Marginal (level 1/4) during this period, mainly in our North/Northwestern Zones. Ample moisture and lifting from disturbances aloft will enable rain chances and flooding concerns to persist into the long term forecast.

03

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough moves north of the area. At the surface, a weak boundary (warm front) will lift northward into SE TX during the day. Increasing theta-e advection, sufficient moisture and instability will lead to increasing precipitation chances during the day. Unfortunately, the bulk of this activity looks to occur again north of I-10; however, rainfall totals are progged to remain around a half inch or less.

The main weather story in the medium range evolves in the increased heat risk. A relatively dry weather is expected through most of the week. However, a quasi-zonal flow aloft, and south to southwest flow at the surface will lead to above normal temperatures. 850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens to mid 20s degC range during the week, suggesting highs in the 90s. Based on latest models solutions, Thursday is shaping up to be one of the hottest days with highs generally into the mid 90s. These values are within the 99th percentile of climatology per NAEFS and GEFS. These readings are progged to be 5 to 10+ degrees above normal for this time of year.

JM

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR to IFR CIGS will slowly begin to lift this morning, climbing back to VFR levels this afternoon. Scattered showers & thunderstorms will taper off this evening, with more MVFR/IFR CIGS developing overnight into Saturday. Southeasterly winds prevail throughout the TAF period.

03

MARINE
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Moderate southeast winds, seas between 3 to 6 ft and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Gusts from 15 to 20 knots will be possible at times, stronger around any thunderstorms. Therefore, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution Conditions will continua today for all bays and Gulf waters.
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas from 3 to 6 ft should remain through the weekend and into the upcoming week.
Seas can reach advisory levels (around 7 ft) at times well offshore.
Rain and storm chances decrease during the weekend, bringing benign marine conditions into next week.

JM

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood stage:

- Trinity River (Madisonville): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Major Flood Stage - Caney Creek (Splendora): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Minor forecast to go to Major - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major - Peach Creek (Splendora): Moderate forecast to go to Major - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Moderate forecast to go to Major

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 83 71 84 71 / 50 10 20 30 Houston (IAH) 83 72 84 73 / 50 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 / 50 10 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200- 212-213-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:33 AM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:12 AM CDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:30 AM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:42 AM CDT     0.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:14 PM CDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM CDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Houston/Galveston, TX,