Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM   Moonset 2:05 PM

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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and Thunderstorms will develop through the morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland. Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KLCH 031149 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 649 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun to redevelop over the last hour in association with the next in a series of shortwaves working across the region within the southwesterly flow aloft. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have developed in response to the light winds and abundant surface water. Expect this fog to be disrupted by any approaching convection, but should otherwise dissipate by 14Z as low level winds increase.

CAMS guidance has done a very poor job depicting convective evolution over the last 24 hours and the convection currently ongoing is about three hours earlier than most CAMS were indicating so nearly all of them are presently being discounted in favor of broader trends in the first 12 hours. No changes were made to the ongoing Flash Flood Watch which continues to highlight the most susceptible areas based on yesterday's rainfall and the latest flash flood guidance. While forecast QPF totals are not expected to be nearly as high as was seen yesterday, it's not going to take much to overwhelm already full catch basins across Southeast Texas and parts of southwest Louisiana.

Expect convection to lift off to the north by mid afternoon and largely ending by 22-23Z. Similar to this morning, conditions should be generally favorable for areas of light fog tonight into Saturday morning. Another shortwave will pass north of the region Saturday afternoon potentially initializing isolated to widely scattered convection across interior parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana, but likely not making as far south as the I-10 corridor.

By Sunday, yet another shortwave will push across the region and this one looks to be closer to the coast allowing for scattered convection to develop across much of the region.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A drier pattern will offer a reprieve from the rain through much of the upcoming work week as drier mid and upper level air will advect into the region. The down side to the drier conditions will be increasing temperatures with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90s across interior Southeast Texas and central Louisiana and upper 80s closer by Wednesday through the end of the week. In an airmass more typical of summer, any surge of moisture would have the potential to produce some diurnally driven afternoon convection, but these would be isolated and short lived.

Jones

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through mid afternoon as an upper level disturbance works through the area. Ceilings will fall to IFR in the vicinity of storms with visibilities falling to a mile or less. Away from storms, persistent southeasterly winds will prevail through the early evening becoming light and somewhat variable overnight.
Ceilings will improve to VFR late this afternoon into early evening before lowering to MVFR overnight. While not explicitly mentioned in TAFs, areas of light fog will have the potential to develop overnight where winds become light.

Jones

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland.
Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 65 86 66 / 80 20 30 10 LCH 81 70 84 71 / 80 10 10 10 LFT 82 70 86 71 / 80 10 10 0 BPT 82 71 84 72 / 60 10 10 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516.

GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Fri -- 12:20 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 AM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:54 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:16 PM CDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:28 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:43 AM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:02 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:01 PM CDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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