Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM   Moonset 2:28 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 840 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast late this evening, then becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and south 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 840 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - High pressure near bermuda continues to ridge westward over florida and into the gulf of mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend. Winds will remain 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.

FXUS62 KJAX 030736 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 336 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...

INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND

NEAR TERM
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the next couple of hours the main concern will be localized fog. Dense fog cannot be entirely ruled out but have left it out of the forecast at the moment with generally low confidence (< 10% chance) of visibility lowering less than 1/4 mile. Any fog that does occur should lift and disperse by 9 AM or earlier.

Stagnant pattern remains in place again today, featuring a stubborn surface high and supporting ridging aloft. Overall the low level pattern will stay consistent but an upper shortwave aloft will shove ridging aloft eastward late this evening and overnight. Strong subsidence and dry air should cap much of the convective attempts along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Enhanced moisture entering from the west in combination with an Atlantic/Gulf sea breeze interaction may spark isolated to widely scattered storms well inland, near and likely west of the I-75 corridor.
Instability is still on the marginal side (only progged to be around 800-1200 J/kg), thus updrafts should be fairly weak in nature and severe weather is unlikely.

Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will slowly propagate across the region resulting in increasing instability with a couple degrees of cooling aloft. This should be supportive of showers overnight mainly north of I-10 and a few elevated t-storms are also feasible through the early morning hours Saturday.

Under influence of ridging aloft another seasonably warm day is on tap this afternoon with inland locations making another push toward 90F while coastal spots are cooled by the onshore flow with readings registering in the mid/upper 80s. Following the warm afternoon, temps will be mild, reading in the mid/upper 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf



SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)

Showers and storms are expected this weekend as a series of short waves pass over the region with sea-breeze-driven storm developments becoming more widespread with diurnal heating. Mild easterly-southeasterly winds will persist through the period with the Atlantic afternoon sea breeze winds pushing inland. High temperatures for the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. Patchy fog potential will exist each morning, especially in localized areas where heavy rain occurs with preceding afternoon convection.



LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Shortwave impulses continue to lift across the region through Monday with shower and storm developments becoming more inhibited as the week progresses due to the increased influence of upper ridging and associated subsidence extending over Florida and Georgia. Amid the stout upper ridge, winds turn offshore and enhance mixing which will boost high temperatures toward record levels as the week progresses; readings are forecast to be in the mid 90s.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Patchy fog is expected to develop toward 08/09z for terminals along the I-95 corridor. Given the nature of the development, an intermittent mix of MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions remains a possibility at all TAF sites. Improvements to VFR will follow shortly after sunrise with predominant easterly wind around 5-10 knots. The Atlantic sea breeze will accelerate easterly winds tow 7- 12 knots during the afternoon but showers and t'storms development appears unlikely given the dry air aloft. There will be an outside chance of an isolated shower at KGNV toward sunset but chances are less than 20% with better chances west of the I-75 corridor.

MARINE

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 67 84 65 / 20 30 70 30 SSI 83 70 81 69 / 0 10 30 20 JAX 88 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 20 SGJ 85 67 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 GNV 89 64 89 65 / 10 10 50 20 OCF 90 65 89 66 / 10 10 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Buffalo Bluff
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:36 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     2.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:59 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Buffalo Bluff
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:48 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:48 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida (2), Tide feet

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