Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM   Moonset 2:36 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 030945 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 445 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Early morning storms continue along the Highway 77 corridor with a strong storm now exiting northern Fayette county. Light showers are also noted farther west along portions of I-35 and the Hill Country.
Elsewhere, patchy fog is in place for most areas outside of the Rio Grande plains. Hi-res models generally show convection will continue for a few more hours early this morning, then gradually decrease in coverage. KEWX VAD wind profile does show roughly 20-25kt southeasterly flow in the lower levels. This along with very moist air characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s is helping to aid convection.

For today, expect plenty of cloud cover and humid conditions over the region. Highs today will range from the mid 90s out west along the Rio Grande where some afternoon clearing will be realized.
Farther east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, highs should stay in the 80s. We will keep rain chances in the forecast today as widely scattered to scattered showers and storms will develop as the lower levels continue to heat. For the late afternoon and evening hours, attention will turn to west Texas as the dryline becomes active. In addition, we should see some convection develop over the Serranias del Burro mountains of Mexico. A good amount of the 00Z hi- res convective allowing models show clusters of storms shifting eastward into the Rio Grande plains, with perhaps a line of storms moving into the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.
Whether or not these storms can make it farther east through the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor is still uncertain.
For now, we have raised rain chances considerably over the NBM for the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country as confidence for convection is higher across these locations. Rain chances may need to be raised farther east across the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor pending the next suite of hi-res model data. SPC has placed areas generally along and west of the I-35/I-37 corridors in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats at this time. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely, and this may lead to localized flooding in areas that have seen recent rains.

Another round of storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, with the the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center placing areas along and north of a Del Rio to San Antonio to Giddings line in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
A cold front may move into portions of north and central Texas late Saturday and this may provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. We will also need to watch for locally heavy rainfall, especially if the cold front or a strong outflow boundary drops southward into the region.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A shortwave disturbance moves through West TX Saturday and generates upscaled convection over West Central and North TX for Saturday evening. Our Hill Country counties are on the southern periphery of this feature, and as we have seen from the Wednesday storm activity, will benefit from the best rain chances for Saturday night. Outflow boundaries will likely lead to locally higher PoPs in the eastern Hill Country and Austin metro area after midnight and into much of Sunday. Additional weak shortwave energy could continue to generate more widely scattered or isolated convection across most areas through Sunday evening. QPF amounts could favor more heavy rainfall mentioning across the north, but not enough areas have endured truly soaked soil conditions for there to be a FFA concern this far out.
Farther south or along and south of Highway 90, lower rain chances are expected and overall QPF is minuscule when compared to the rainfall potential along and north of I-10. That said, a discrete strong to severe storm or two forming over southern counties could end up dropping a quick 1-2 inches over isolated spots Throughout the period Saturday night through Sunday night. Appropriately, the national centers have deemed our severe weather and heavy rainfall threats to be "marginal", but areas of "slight" for both categories exist to the north and east, so a possible escalation to the higher threat could evolve as we get closer to the time periods.

Sunday night the fetch of shortwave activity appears to fizzle out as a vigorous upper trough cuts across the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Models have trended more humid and mostly cloudy for Monday with still a relatively deep layer of Gulf moisture. Thus have followed the trends to believe there could be a few showers or sprinkles as the cap takes hold aloft. The drier and more stable pattern in the mid levels should bring our first taste of summer heat for Tuesday through Thursday. The GFS was especially hard-hitting with a short-lived heat wave covering western and central counties in this period, but both GFS and ECM are trending toward less mixing of this drier air aloft mixing down. As it stands, we still see a good chance of triple digit heat along the Rio Grande through the mid-week period, but central and eastern counties are a bit less certain on the temperature range. Thus, will state vaguely that highs in the 90s are most likely each day.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Radar echoes are trending downward early this morning as low clouds thicken and continue to develop. IFR is already in place along I-35 and will continue through most of the morning hours. Some patchy fog and drizzle can also be expected given saturated conditions in the boundary layer. Will need to monitor for some brief, VLIFR conditions around sunrise, but will not include in the forecast at this time.
DRT is currently MVFR, but will trend downward into IFR around 09Z.
Slow improvement is anticipated by early afternoon as daytime heating is realized and cigs rise. We kept the mention of VCSH for all sites in the afternoon hours and opted for a PROB30 group for DRT as convection over the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande develops and moves eastward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 85 70 86 70 / 30 20 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 70 85 69 / 30 20 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 71 89 71 / 30 20 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 84 69 83 69 / 20 20 30 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 74 91 73 / 30 50 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 69 83 68 / 20 20 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 89 70 88 69 / 20 20 20 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 70 87 69 / 30 20 20 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 72 86 72 / 30 10 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 88 72 89 72 / 20 20 20 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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