Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melbourne, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight... The upper level low pressure will deepen and move eastward towards Maine through the day. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. Moisture will remain somewhat elevated today, with forecast PW values around 0.8-1.0". Marine stratocu will continue to push onshore today, leading to cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across much of the area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers and sprinkles today with this cloud cover, mainly along the coast.
A few onshore moving showers will continue into tonight, with cloud cover breaking up some, but still remaining partly cloudy.

The pressure gradient has loosened slightly over the local area into this afternoon, allowing the windy conditions earlier this morning to slacken. Because of this, have allowed the Wind Advisory to expire. Despite the slackening of the pressure gradient, breezy and gusty conditions will continue through the day. Northeast winds at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon will become north to northeast and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

These breezy and gusty winds will also lead to hazardous beach conditions, with a high risk for rip currents, and large breaking waves of 7-9 feet producing rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion at area beaches. A High Surf Advisory continues along the coast through 7 PM this evening. A Rip Current Statement for the high risk of rip currents also continues into tonight.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front today despite the low level onshore winds keeping the temperatures from going as low as they are north of the local area. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south. Overnight lows will range from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south tonight.

Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday and Thursday night well ahead of the next front, with low (20-30 percent) chance for showers across much of the area.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

Friday-Sunday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. High pressure over the eastern US will move eastward and offshore Saturday night and continue to move seaward on Sunday. A weakening cold front moves through the southeast U.S and will eventually reach the local area on Friday. First the front will drop into northern Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA throughout the day on Saturday. High pressure across the eastern US will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front as it moves eastward, eventually moving offshore on Sunday.

North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday and Sunday behind the front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas Friday through Sunday.
However, isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible across the Atlantic waters each day. Temperatures will not change much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s each day. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south Saturday and Sunday nights.

MARINE
Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Currently-Tonight... (Modified Previous Discussion) Hazardous boating conditions will continue across the waters this afternoon, as a breezy and gusty north-northeast breeze continues with speeds 15-20 KT and gusts up to 35 KT as well as seas up to 7-11 ft. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues across the entire waters through this evening. Winds will continue to diminish overnight to 10-15 knots out of the E/NE, but seas will remain up to 7-8 feet, mainly over the Gulf Stream waters where the SCA will remain in place. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the waters through tonight, pushing toward the southwest.

Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will build offshore Tuesday, with the ridge axis remaining across the local waters through midweek. This will continue onshore winds across the waters with wind speeds up to 10-15 knots Tuesday-Wednesday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue into Tuesday, as swells will maintain seas up to 5-7 feet. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the offshore Brevard and Treasure Coast waters through Tuesday afternoon. Boating conditions then become more favorable into Wednesday as seas fall to 3-5 feet.

Winds veer S/SE Thursday and then W/SW Thursday night before a weak cold front moves through the waters Friday, switching winds to the N/NW. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through late week, with seas 3-4 feet Thursday and building back to 3-5 feet Friday and Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the waters for much of this week, with isolated storms possible mainly over the gulf stream into Thursday night ahead of the approaching weak front.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

SCT-BKN 030-050 marine stratocu layer will persist thru at least 00z with gradual some clearing forecast thereafter, especially inland. Gusty NE winds 12-18 kt with gusts 20-25 kt are forecast to subside to 5-10 kt after 00-03z returning to 8-12 kt after 15z Tue. Additional stratocu looks to form and move onshore after 12-14z Tue. as well. Mainly VFR with occasional MVFR CIGs thru the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 69 56 73 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 51 72 56 75 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 56 72 61 75 / 20 10 0 10 VRB 57 72 60 76 / 20 10 0 10 LEE 46 71 53 74 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 50 71 55 75 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 50 71 56 75 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 57 73 60 76 / 20 10 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.