Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to choppy. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 030815 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening

Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HRRR mean surface based CAPE ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result in an environment favorable for organized deep convection.

Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear will support supercells that will move east to southeast through the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts.
Finally, the 00Z HRRR guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3 inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5 inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash flooding this evening.

The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day.
That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday.

Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This will result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday. Elsewhere temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid- upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values could exceed 110 degrees.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into the morning hours across the region. Ceilings will then improve to MVFR/VFR by the afternoon hours. There will be a low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across South Texas this afternoon and evening.
While the highest chance of convection will be across the western half of the CWA, confidence in impacts at either COT or LRD was too low to include a PROB30 with this forecast package. MVFR ceilings are once again expected to build into the entire region during tomorrow evening.

MARINE
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 88 75 88 75 / 10 10 0 10 Victoria 86 73 87 73 / 20 10 0 10 Laredo 98 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 Alice 92 74 91 74 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 0 10 Cotulla 97 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 20 Kingsville 89 75 89 75 / 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 85 77 85 76 / 10 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Fri -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:40 AM CDT     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:00 PM CDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM CDT     -0.22 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:26 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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