Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM   Moonset 1:25 PM

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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 1017 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Patchy fog late. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 1017 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected the rest of tonight through Friday night, in response to several upper level disturbances upstream. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist this weekend continuing through the upcoming work week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 022351 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 651 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key messages:

- Moderate risk of rip currents tonight

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible over the Brush Country Friday afternoon

The GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian deterministic NWP models predict the Victoria Crossroads under the LFQ of a subtropical jet streak late tonight/early Friday, and the ECMWF/Canadian place the western CWA under the RRQ of this jet streak by late Friday afternoon.
Slightly above normal PWAT values predicted for much of the period (deterministic GFS/NAM). The combination of the foregoing appear to drive the timing/position of mainly isolated convection during the period. Concur with the Marginal risk of severe for Friday over the Brush Country, when considering the NAM deterministic output of SBCAPE values 3000-4000 J/kg, and DCAPE magnitudes 1000-1500 J/kg late Friday afternoon/early evening for the central/western CWA The most recent spectral density and other output from the 42019 buoy suggest swell periods around 7 seconds, and the WaveWatch maintains this state overnight. Will retain the Moderate risk for rip currents tonight, yet an upgrade to a High risk may be needed if swell periods persistently reach 8 seconds.
Maximum Heat Index values may reach/exceed 105F over the Rio Grande Plains Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

Mostly dry conditions will persist through the long term period.
However there is a low (10-30%) chance for a thunderstorm to impact the Rio Grande Plains or northern Brush Country over the weekend.
Then it heats up as a more southwesterly subsident low level flow develops over the Sierra Madre spreading over South Texas. This will result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande by Tuesday and a record 110 degrees by Thursday. Elsewhere temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid- upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values could exceed 110 degrees!

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Currently have a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions with IFR CIG's overnight/Friday morning. Ceilings should be MVFR/VFR by tomorrow afternoon through the evening hours. Have around a 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across South Texas across the region tomorrow afternoon and evening but have low confidence in location despite some models suggesting storm initiation near the TX/MX border and a west to eastward propagation. This could result in IFR/LIFR VSBY's and/or CIG's towards the end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Moderate onshore flow expected during the late afternoon and evening hours over the southern bays and southern nearshore coastal waters. Otherwise, generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through Friday night, in response to upper level disturbances upstream. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist this weekend continuing through the upcoming work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 76 88 75 88 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 73 86 73 87 / 20 20 10 0 Laredo 77 98 75 95 / 10 20 20 10 Alice 75 92 74 91 / 10 20 10 10 Rockport 75 84 75 84 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 77 97 75 95 / 10 20 10 10 Kingsville 75 89 75 89 / 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 77 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Thu -- 03:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:25 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:54 PM CDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Thu -- 02:15 AM CDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:24 PM CDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:25 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:30 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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