Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 2:33 PM

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GMZ132 Expires:202405031530;;522726 Fzus54 Kbro 030231 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 931 pm cdt Thu may 2 2024
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-031530- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 931 pm cdt Thu may 2 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.

GMZ100 931 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to sometimes high seas will prevail along the lower texas coast through the forecast.

FXUS64 KBRO 030610 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 110 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Will key off the SPC Day 2 outlook to start, focusing on Friday night to Saturday morning. SPC places the County Warning Area in a general thunderstorm risk area, with the extreme Upper Valley in a marginal tstorm risk. The depicted SPC local area is essentially part of a southward extension of what is forecast to be more active convection over the southern High Plains on Friday. The southern extension of the Texas dryline will likely lie just to the west of the CWA Friday, extending south into Mexico along the Sierra Madre Oriental range. That appears to be where a tstorm threat will first become evident Friday afternoon. Confidence is still on the low side, 10 to 20%, and the window (timeframe) is limited.

Otherwise, there may be patchy, light fog here and there overnight, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and near/over marine areas.
Rip current risk will likely continue to be moderate. Additionally, slightly above average (by a few degrees) temperatures will occur, tempered by ample cloud cover. Southeast winds will remain moderate to breezy.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key Messages:

* Temperatures off to the races as early-season heat expected to build into the area next week

* Widespread triple digit heating expected Tuesday through Thursday

* Heat indices are expected to range between 105F-115F degrees across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Monday through Thursday

* Little to no relief at night with overnight lows in the upper 70s to near 80F Monday night through Thursday night; elevated cooling degree days (CDDs)

* Heat Advisories possibly needed Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices ranging between 110F-115F

* HeatRisk scores range from Moderate to Extreme over the region Tuesday through Thursday of next week (heat will likely affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration)

The main weather headline during the long-term forecast period will be the HEAT. Global forecast models and ensembles (GEFS, CMC, ECE)
continue to advertise unseasonably warm to hot conditions developing over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley next week. According to recent model runs, a 591 dam sub-tropical heat dome centered over central/southern Mexico is expected to strengthen and expand northeastward into Deep South Texas/Rio Grande Valley and the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. Current forecast indicates 500 mb heights ranging between 588-591 dam. Monday and Tuesday, 850 mb temperatures are expected to range between 22C-26C. By Wednesday and Thursday (the hottest period of this stretch), 850 mb temperatures are expected to range between 26C-30C. According to the NAEFS, these temperatures are +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal.

This will translate to surface temperatures during the afternoon hours ranging from the mid 90s to about 110F degrees Tuesday through Thursday. When you factor in the elevated humidity levels (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s), widespread 100+ degree heat indices are expected. Monday and Tuesday, heat indices are expected to range between 105F-110F degrees. Wednesday and Thursday, again the peak of this early season heat episode, heat indices are expected to range between 105F-115F degrees. Heat Advisories may be needed Wednesday and Thursday. Our new HeatRisk Tool is scoring a continuation of mainly moderate heat risk Saturday through Monday.
By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, the HeatRisk increases to anywhere from moderate to extreme. This would suggest the likelihood of heat affecting anyone without effective cooling and /or adequate hydration, and little to overnight relief.

People are urged to continue to monitor the latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Brownsville/Rio Grande valley (weather.gov/bro/). Leading up to this heat event, people should take a proactive approach and heed the necessary precautions to prepare for the heat. During the heat event next week, people should follow all precaution and guidelines (i.e. hydrate at all times, stay away from strenuous activities, wear light loose fitting cloths, check on the pets and elderly and move them to air conditioned facilities).

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Light to moderate southeast winds and low cloud decks with a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Moisture increasing overnight will allow ceilings to lower to IFR overnight through early this morning at all RGV aerodromes. MVFR ceilings are expected by mid to later morning.
Winds will decrease early this morning and could allow for some patchy fog to develop near daybreak. VFR conditions are expected to return this afternoon, especially at MFE. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again late in the period.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to sometimes marginally high seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast through the short term. High pressure will be in control over the Gulf, interacting with lower pressure deep inland and upstream to provide a gradient conducive to persistent southeast winds.

Saturday through Thursday....Moderate winds and seas are expected to persist Saturday through Thursday. There could be times of Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions taking place through the long-term period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 77 93 77 93 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 81 76 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 87 75 88 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:11 AM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:04 PM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:09 PM CDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:55 PM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:36 PM CDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:10 PM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas (2), Tide feet

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