Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The cold front that brought the cooler temperatures is well into the Gulf, and we are feeling the last of the cold air advection from this front. This evening, winds will shift from the north to the east, then the southeast, as high pressure builds in the Gulf behind the front. With the southeasterly winds will come an increase in dew points as moisture builds across the RGV. Aloft, a trough will dig south into Mexico before lifting north along the coast. This system will cause enough instability to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. PoPs will not be evenly distributed with a low chance (10-30%) for showers on the western side of the CWA and a high chance (50-70%)
along the coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rainfall totals don’t look too impressive with the average amounts around 0.02 inches with even the 90th percentile below 0.10 inches for most of the region.

Thursday going into Friday, a dry cold front is expected to move through the region. Rain won’t be a concern with this front, but it will drop our highs back into the 70s with dew points in the 40s and 50s. The cool down will be short-lived as high pressure in the Gulf reasserts itself, and warm air advection brings temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the 80s.
The rest of the forecast looks to be warm and humid as we head into Christmas week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to return tonight and generally prevail into Tuesday with light winds gradually shifting southeasterly.

MARINE
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Most of the impacts today are on the marine side, even with the decreasing winds and waves. Multiple hazards are in effect both along the coast and offshore. Along the coast, there is a high rip current risk, high surf advisory, and a beach hazard statment until 6 PM this evening. Wave heights are between 4 and 6 feet and have a swell of 8 seconds, leading to surf heights of 7 to 8 feet.
Offshore winds are above the 20-knot threshold for a small craft advisory; similar to the coastal hazards, winds will fall below hazardous levels this evening.

In the extended forecast, rain chances will return on Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 55 76 67 78 / 0 10 50 70 HARLINGEN 51 76 63 78 / 0 10 40 60 MCALLEN 54 76 64 79 / 0 10 50 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 71 60 78 / 0 10 40 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 73 69 75 / 0 10 50 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 75 64 78 / 0 10 40 70

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.