Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 2:23 PM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1156 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease - .
Overnight - East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Friday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Friday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers. Saturday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Saturday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers. Sunday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Sunday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers. Monday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers. Tuesday - East winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.Tuesday night - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1156 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will persist over the western north atlantic for the next several days resulting in an extended period of moderate to fresh easterly breezes. Breezes will peak during the nighttime hours, with some lulling during the daytime.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 01, 2024 - .
58 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 18 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 14 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 15 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 11 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 030651 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 251 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.

Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass, which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of SoFlo.

The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous days.

Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the west coast of SoFlo.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as the easterly flow push them inland.

Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few showers may be possible near the east coast Friday morning but feel probs are too low to explicitly mention in this issuance.
Generally easterly winds prevail through the period with gusts to 20kts possible during the day. KAPF will see an afternoon wind shift to the W-SW again.

MARINE
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts range out of the east.

BEACHES
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Breezy easterly flow will keep an elevated risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches through early next week. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized across the Palm Beach County beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 84 73 84 74 / 10 10 30 30 West Kendall 85 70 86 70 / 10 10 30 30 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 10 10 30 30 Homestead 84 73 84 72 / 10 10 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 83 74 / 10 20 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 30 40 Pembroke Pines 87 73 87 73 / 10 10 30 30 West Palm Beach 84 71 84 71 / 10 10 30 30 Boca Raton 84 72 84 73 / 10 10 40 40 Naples 89 70 88 70 / 10 20 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:58 AM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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