Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 2:25 PM

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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 430 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.Tonight - East winds near 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers. Saturday night and Sunday - East winds near 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Sunday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers. Monday and Monday night - East winds near 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers. Tuesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 430 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will persist over the western north atlantic for the next several days resulting in an extended period of moderate to fresh easterly breezes. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 01, 2024 - .
58 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 18 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 14 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 15 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 11 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 030820 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 420 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad belt of westerlies across the western half of the CONUS. A narrow ridge-trough couplet is over the eastern US and the Bahamas. The surface high centered near Bermuda supports 15 to 20 knot easterlies along the Reef.
The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled PW near the 25th percentile for the date. The BL easterlies shift to the northwest in the upper levels. The KBYX radar has been mostly quiet.

FORECAST
Anomalously lower mid to upper level heights will linger over the Bahamas for the next several days. The Keys will remain on the dry and stable side of this trough complex. Early May is historically a quiet period of weather for the Florida Keys, and the forecast for the next week is no different. The main weather story will be the persistent easterlies. Magnitudes will reach 15 to 20 knots during the evening surges, followed by regular lulls late each morning and early in the afternoon as South Florida heats-up and buckles the SFC gradient.

The GOES TPW product reveals deep tropical moisture across the Central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles. Given the latitude of this plume, the multiday easterlies will never have a chance of dragging the enhanced moisture into the Keys. We continue to highlight slight rain chances throughout the next week, but nudged Sunday night and Monday up to 20% as the northern flank of the plume brushes into the Bahama Banks and the Straits of Florida. By this time next week, afternoon highs will be nearing the upper 80s for much of the island chain, accompanied by overnight lows nearing 80. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are right around the corner.

MARINE
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure will persist over the western North Atlantic for the next several days resulting in an extended period of moderate to fresh easterly breezes. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Friday evening, with rain chances remaining very low. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible, mainly during the predawn and early morning hours. Surface winds will remain from the east at 7 to 13 knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots at times.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Reef Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:18 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:52 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Reef Light, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:58 AM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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