Sunrise 4:51 AM   Sunset 11:00 PM Moonrise 8:43 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM

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PKZ802 Dall Point To Kwikpak Pass Out To 15 Nm- 256 Am Akdt Tue May 21 2024
Today - E winds 20 kt becoming s. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. Tonight - SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wed - E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Wed night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Thu - E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. Fri - E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 211051 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 251 AM AKDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A Bering Sea front is moving inland across the West Coast tonight, and this will shift northeast today. Alaska Range gap winds will increase as well and will peak late this afternoon and evening, but it should become breezy across most of the Interior today with that chinook flow. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms for the Interior into Wednesday, then things cool down with chances for rainfall on Thursday. Break-up continues over the Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon, and breaking is beginning over parts of the N Slope, as well. Snowmelt flooding will be a concern over the Yukon Flats along the Porcupine River in the coming days.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 522 dam mobile low over the Bering Sea with a leading shortwave trough/front moving into the YK Delta this morning in the form of widespread rain/rain showers. There is a shortwave ridge aloft over the E Interior, with heights around 555 dam.
There is a departing mobile shortwave trough over the BC region of Canada, with heights around 540 dam. There is a 991 mb low over the Bering Sea and a 1029 mb high over the arctic waters. There is a weak thermal trough over the S Interior.

Model Discussion...
Models are in very good agreement with the general pattern but they continue to struggle with the way the Bering low transitions into the Gulf of Alaska, which will then have a significant influence on the precipitation pattern over the Interior Wed night and Thu. Overall, the models all show something semi-similar but all different, so we will just favor a continued blend at this time, which continues the theme of cooler by Thu with increased chances for rain showers. Prior to that, we favored the hi-res winds and we also increased winds today over the Interior due to the chinook flow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another nice day today, with increased southerly winds and temps pushing up to near or slightly above 70 once again. Gap winds in the AK Range will peak today and this evening with gusts to near 50 mph then trend down Wednesday evening. Heavy rain showers will develop Wed evening and into Thursday, but there is very low confidence where those will occur, and right now, the best bet is likely over the higher elevations, with less chances over the lower elevation valleys. Showers persist into Friday along with cooler temps from the recent string of above average readings.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front with widespread rain/rain showers and easterly winds is moving inland across the YK Delta and shifts across the Seward Peninsula and Interior through tonight. Rain showers behind this front will rotate in from the Bering Sea and will persist into Wednesday. Another front brings more rain to the SW Coast and Lower Yukon Thu night and Fri. Three day total rainfall amounts will be rather light, with around 0.5 inches on the lower Yukon to 0.25 inches or less further north.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus, fog, periodic snow showers and east winds will dominate for the next several days. Wind gusts to gale force will develop over the W Arctic from Point Lay to Point Hope later today into early Wednesday. There is a chance that snow showers may turn to mixed precip after today as warmer air aloft moves in, with spotty ice pellets or possibly freezing drizzle. The crest of the Brooks Range will see increased chances for rain (snow above 2500 feet by Wed night) showers midweek and beyond as an arctic front stalls over the mountains.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A progressive Bering sea flow continues in the extended period as yet another Bering front is moving inland across SW AK early Friday. This low takes the exact same path as the last and will dive into the Gulf of AK and bring showers to the Interior. After Monday, it looks fairly blase weather-wise with minimal significant impacts, and no significant anomalies to note as the Mainland finds itself sandwiched between several weak upper level lows.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
No changes to thinking with a minor chinook pattern today, but strong enough to push AK Range gap winds to 30+ mph, which will support red flag conditions down by Delta Junction. However, it will be generally dry and breezy everywhere this afternoon in the Interior with widespread min RH values in the teens and low 20s.
And with temps in the low 70s, it will be near critical weather conditions across most of the E Interior and Tanana Valley today.

Wednesday the chinook is waning and temps come down, along with weaker winds. Rain shower chances increase Thu with cooler temps into Fri. Right now, no thunderstorm chances are anticipated, although there is a less than 5 percent chance on Thu along the ALCAN.

HYDROLOGY

Lower Yukon break-up continues as running ice and high water remain at St Mary's, Pitkas Point and Mountain Village and a ice jam flood watch remains for those areas through Tue. The break up front is now downstream of Mountain Village and will likely get to the Yukon Delta at Alakanuk, Emmonak, Nunam Iqua and Kotlik sometime between late tonight and Fri, bringing the risk of ice jam flooding to those areas tonight through Fri. Flood watches are out for all these areas.

The water levels along the Porcupine River at the Border rose to record levels over the weekend due to heavy snowmelt. This high water is expected to reach Ft Yukon on Wed, where it will gradually fills sloughs and swales east of Ft Yukon and eventually bring high water into Ft Yukon late this week with high water continuing into next week. A flood watch is valid front this Wed through next week Wed.

There are no new reports about the Buckland River, but there was a reported ice jam downstream of Buckland a couple days ago with rising water levels. We will continue to monitor.

Rivers on the North Slope are beginning to flow with water flowing over ice with some open water areas. Those area will continue to see increasing melt this week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
Flood Watch for AKZ826.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.

Kwikluak Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM AKDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:09 AM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 05:04 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM AKDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:42 PM AKDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM AKDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:42 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kwikluak Pass, Yukon River, Alaska, Tide feet

Black
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 03:21 AM AKDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM AKDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:31 PM AKDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:58 PM AKDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:41 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black, Black River, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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