Sunrise 4:51 AM   Sunset 11:00 PM Moonrise 7:14 PM   Moonset 2:40 AM

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PKZ737 Marmot Bay- 302 Pm Akdt Tue May 21 2024
.small craft advisory Wednesday night - .
Tonight - SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Wed - SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.Wed night - W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu - W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu night - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.Fri - W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sun - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 220114 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 514 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

The active weather pattern continues through the duration of the short term, with a period of drier weather possible on Thursday before another wave of precipitation arrives.

Satellite and radar imagery as of the time of writing depict a frontal band currently moving across Southcentral Alaska.
Alongside widespread precipitation, this system is also bringing with it gusty conditions for much of the area, particularly parts of Turnagain Arm. The progenitor of this front is a vertically- integrated low currently situated almost directly over St. Paul Island, and which has reached a respectable depth of 522 decameters (500 mb) per operational guidance. The system will begin to occlude as it meanders NE towards Nunivak Island, ultimately falling apart through the day on Wednesday.

Its associated front will continue to maintain widespread chances of precipitation through Wednesday, though some drying could reach places like Kodiak Island. The front will depart through Wednesday night, and drier weather is likely on Thursday, particularly for areas north of the Kenai. Another wave will advance north through late Thursday into Friday, bringing widespread precipitation back across Southcentral.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday Night)...

An occluded low is sitting just east of the Pribilof Islands this afternoon and is the immediate focus of all the weather in Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutian region. The main front associated with this low passed through Southwest Alaska earlier today, but the cold air aloft and moist southerly flow behind the front is keeping stratocumulus clouds over most of the region in spite of the frontal passage. The main low will move slowly eastward and weaken, finally lifting northward as a warmer low moves into the Bering Sea for Wednesday night and Thursday.
This will bring in another round of widespread showers to Southwest Alaska. Places along the Kuskokwim Delta coast have been cold enough to see some snow mix in with the rain today. There may still be some snow that mixes in this evening and overnight, but in general warmer air from the southwest will move over the area and the areas of snow will retreat northwestward across the Bering Sea over the next day or two. The Pribilof Islands could see a little snow mix in with the rain on Wednesday night.

The second low will enter the western Bering near Attu Wednesday evening and then track between the Pribilof Islands and Nunivak Island Thursday night. As mentioned earlier, this low is much warmer aloft than the current low. There will still be showers around this low, especially when it moves over Southwest mainland Alaska, but the heaviest showers should be associated with the embedded waves that will develop around this low. Overall, total precip amounts should be less with this second system.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Saturday through Tuesday...

The Eastern Bering upper level low continues to ooze its way Southeastward across the Alaska Peninsula, into and across the Gulf of Alaska through the beginning of the week. A rather energetic impulse over Northwestern Alaska helps flatten a Western Bering ridge, and draw a trough back into the Bering through the weekend, and helps establish a link-up with a second low out of the Russian Far East through Tuesday. With smaller troughs and weak surface low centers rotating through the pattern along the Aleutians, periods of rainfall are expected over the Aleutians, AKPEN, Kodiak Island and the Southern Kenai Peninsula through the forecast period.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, elevated easterly sustained winds and gusts will slowly decrease through tonight, subsiding to to 6-12 kts under scattered to overcast skies with intermittent ceilings around 5k ft. Reinforcing mid/upper level trough will bring a windshift and the potential for -RA near end of TAF period.

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Kizhuyak Point
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Tue -- 01:01 AM AKDT     9.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:40 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:51 AM AKDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:08 PM AKDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM AKDT     2.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:13 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kizhuyak Point, Alaska, Tide feet

Fox Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM AKDT     9.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:40 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM AKDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:25 PM AKDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM AKDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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