Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeside, MT
May 21, 2024 7:58 PM MDT (01:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 9:20 PM Moonrise 6:46 PM Moonset 3:40 AM |
FXUS65 KMSO 211836 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1236 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024
DISCUSSION
A broad trough across the western U.S. will support a couple of embedded cutoff low pressure systems over the next week. So overall, the weather will remain cooler than average with clouds and showers, but with a couple stronger systems embedded in the overall pattern. A change to warmer, drier weather is in the works for next week.
The first cutoff low pressure system arrives tomorrow. During the day, this will just bring widespread rain across western Montana and central Idaho. But tomorrow night some cooler air from the north arrives and causes snow levels to drop. Currently, we have winter weather watches out for areas south of I-90 in western Montana for Wednesday night as a result. Forecasts have a wide range from the low end (10th percentile) to the high end (90th percentile). Lost Trail Pass ranges from around 3 inches to 1 foot, with Georgetown Lake and Phillipsburg ranging from 0.75 to 8 inches of snow by Thursday morning. In Lemhi County, Idaho Gilmore Summit ranges from about 0.2 to 9 inches. And some of the most extreme impacts will be in the back country of the Anaconda- Pintlar Mountains where forecasts range from 5 to 25 inches of new snow.
There are two main reasons for the high ranges of snow amounts in the forecast. The first is that this is a very wet system, so IF it turns to snow at any point, it will produce a lot of snow. But the crux of the uncertainty lies in how low and when the snow levels will drop. The bottom line is that the risk is high enough for heavy snow that you need to be prepared for it in the back country and over the passes of southwestern Montana and Lemhi county Idaho.
The second cutoff low looks to arrive just in time for Memorial Day weekend. It looks very similar to the system forecast for tomorrow, though the uncertainty remains higher due to the longer lead time. The bottom line there is if you are planning on heading to the outdoors for Memorial Day weekend, be prepared for cool, wet conditions and snow if you're headed to higher elevations.
Ensembles and long range models agree well on a change to warmer weather and above average temperatures around next Monday. So while Memorial Day weekend starts out cold and wet, it looks to end with some very pleasant weather.
AVIATION
Expect VFR conditions through this evening with clouds increasing tonight. A cutoff low is moving into the region tonight and tomorrow morning. Showers will start in western Montana Wednesday morning with snow levels above 6,000 feet, so area terminals won't be affected by the snow. Snow levels start to fall Wednesday night, so by Thursday morning snow will very likely be impacting terminal KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.
ID...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1236 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024
DISCUSSION
A broad trough across the western U.S. will support a couple of embedded cutoff low pressure systems over the next week. So overall, the weather will remain cooler than average with clouds and showers, but with a couple stronger systems embedded in the overall pattern. A change to warmer, drier weather is in the works for next week.
The first cutoff low pressure system arrives tomorrow. During the day, this will just bring widespread rain across western Montana and central Idaho. But tomorrow night some cooler air from the north arrives and causes snow levels to drop. Currently, we have winter weather watches out for areas south of I-90 in western Montana for Wednesday night as a result. Forecasts have a wide range from the low end (10th percentile) to the high end (90th percentile). Lost Trail Pass ranges from around 3 inches to 1 foot, with Georgetown Lake and Phillipsburg ranging from 0.75 to 8 inches of snow by Thursday morning. In Lemhi County, Idaho Gilmore Summit ranges from about 0.2 to 9 inches. And some of the most extreme impacts will be in the back country of the Anaconda- Pintlar Mountains where forecasts range from 5 to 25 inches of new snow.
There are two main reasons for the high ranges of snow amounts in the forecast. The first is that this is a very wet system, so IF it turns to snow at any point, it will produce a lot of snow. But the crux of the uncertainty lies in how low and when the snow levels will drop. The bottom line is that the risk is high enough for heavy snow that you need to be prepared for it in the back country and over the passes of southwestern Montana and Lemhi county Idaho.
The second cutoff low looks to arrive just in time for Memorial Day weekend. It looks very similar to the system forecast for tomorrow, though the uncertainty remains higher due to the longer lead time. The bottom line there is if you are planning on heading to the outdoors for Memorial Day weekend, be prepared for cool, wet conditions and snow if you're headed to higher elevations.
Ensembles and long range models agree well on a change to warmer weather and above average temperatures around next Monday. So while Memorial Day weekend starts out cold and wet, it looks to end with some very pleasant weather.
AVIATION
Expect VFR conditions through this evening with clouds increasing tonight. A cutoff low is moving into the region tonight and tomorrow morning. Showers will start in western Montana Wednesday morning with snow levels above 6,000 feet, so area terminals won't be affected by the snow. Snow levels start to fall Wednesday night, so by Thursday morning snow will very likely be impacting terminal KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.
ID...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGPI GLACIER PARK INTL,MT | 19 sm | 63 min | SW 11G18 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 28°F | 29% | 29.83 |
Missoula, MT,
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