Sunrise 4:59 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 6:39 PM   Moonset 3:44 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS61 KCAR 211016 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 616 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain along the eastern seaboard through mid week. An upper disturbance will cross the region this afternoon into this evening. A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
The stratus has made it as far north as Houlton at this hour, otherwise mainly mid/high level cloud across the region at this time.

Just minor tweaks to hourly temperatures/dew points, as well as cloud cover through early this morning.

previous discussion Surface high stretching from Nova Scotia to the mid atlantic will drift slowly east into the western atlantic today. Upper ridging remains along the eastern seaboard. The main focus today remains with regard to the approaching short wave/remnant MCV that will continue to track eastward from the great lakes region and toward northern New England. There is still some uncertainty regarding the convective potential across the forecast area today. Latest CAMs indicating that the most numerous convection this afternoon may remain to our southwest across VT/NH into southwest Maine. SPC continues to have a portion of our CWA outlined in a marginal risk for severe today. This area is mainly from just north of the Bangor region, to Houlton, and then west through northern Somerset county. Thus continued to mention isolated thunder with gusty winds/small hail. The warmest temperatures this afternoon will be found to the north of the Bangor region, where highs will top out around the 80 degree mark. A more of an onshore flow will keep Downeast areas, especially the coast much cooler.

Tonight will be mainly cloudy with early evening isolated thunderstorms diminishing to scattered showers and mainly cloudy skies, Low clouds and fog will likley be an issue once again for the coast and portions of Downeast. It will be another mild night with lows only around 60 degrees away from the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Showers may be ongoing Wednesday morning as vort max passes thru.
Lingering boundary looks to be present as well from prior convection. This boundary will tend to sag south during the day with thunderstorms developing along it, mainly over central sxns of the CWA as airmass destabilizes. Given cloud cover and very minimal forcing expected, think this will be more on the order of pulse convection in the afternoon. Temps acrs the north likely to warm to near 80 once again with l/m 80s for interior Downeast, cooler along the coast.

Occluded warm front lifts through Wednesday night with warm advection showers increasing. Patchy fog expected over entire region in warm and humid airmass. By Thursday morning expect that front will be just to the west of the state in Quebec. Pops increase overnight with front approaching.

Expect categorical to likely pops across the north Thursday morning with patchy fog remaining across the area. Frontal movement will determine chances for storms on Thursday. Latest guidance remains in disagreement on how quickly front passes with compromise appears to be from the Caribou area down toward Bangor. Have continued mention of tstms in the afternoon but strength to storms will be dependent on timing as well as how much airmass can destabilize after patchy fog burns off. Any thermal gradient left over from fog will also add instability gradients from late morning and early afternoon into the mix.

Front looks to move through Thursday evening with lingering showers expected early. As skies clear mins will drop back into the 50s by Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Zonal flow expected on Friday with upr s/wv zipping thru in the flow leading to aftn and evng showers across the north. H5 ridge builds in briefly behind aforementioned wave with mainly dry weather expected on Saturday. Temps over the weekend will still be above normal, mainly in the u60s and 70s.

Skinny sfc ridge looks to shift east rapidly late in the weekend with occlusion bringing showers on Sunday and again on Monday.
Prior runs from any model did not show this solution but have slowly introduced slight chc showers Sunday and Sunday night with pops increasing thru the end of the extended.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: For BGR/BHB, expect IFR/LIFR in low cloud and patchy fog through about 15Z, then VFR thereafter. VFR conditions early this evening will give way to IFR/LIFR again tonight in developing low cloud and patchy fog. S wind 5 to 15 kt through tonight.

For the northern terminals, VFR is expected into tonight, but patchy low clouds may develop early this morning vicinity KHUL/KPQI with possible localized brief sub VFR conditions. Patchy fog may also result in sub VFR conditions developing late tonight. S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt through tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon.
Forecast confidence in timing/placement of any terminal getting a TSRA is low, thus will not include in the latest TAF forecast. Amendments will likley be needed this afternoon to address any convective activity if, and when, it develops.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...VFR with afternoon storms possible. Light SW winds.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in patchy fog and showers late. Light S winds.

Thursday...VFR tempo IFR in storms along a cold front in the afternoon. Light S winds, SW 5-10kts in the afternoon.

Thursday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR with MVFR cigs across the north Friday in light showers. W 5-10kts becoming NW 5-15kts Saturday morning.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight.
Visibility will be reduced at times to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog this morning and again late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through Saturday. Fog will reduce visibilities over the waters through late Thursday night before front moves through.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bonsecours
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     4.65 meters High Tide
Tue -- 04:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:12 AM EDT     0.92 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:59 PM EDT     4.38 meters High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     1.23 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bonsecours, Quebec, Tide feet

St-Jean-Port-Joli
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:17 AM EDT     5.06 meters High Tide
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:46 AM EDT     0.87 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT     4.48 meters High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:44 PM EDT     1.10 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Caribou, ME,