Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Walker, MN
May 21, 2024 9:55 PM CDT (02:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:25 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 6:21 PM Moonset 3:23 AM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KFGF 220255 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 955 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Northerly winds gusting to 50 mph are expected across the southern Red River Valley this afternoon and evening.
- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized overland flooding for the Southern Red River Valley and into west central Minnesota.
- River Flood watches in effect for southern Red River Valley points.
UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Winds are gradually diminishing across much of the area. Peak gusts are down to 35 mph, with most areas not seeing gusts exceeding 30 mph. Light rain is still being observed across portions of the Red River Valley, and west central and northwest Minnesota. Shower activity will become more isolated heading further into the evening and overnight hours as the upper low continues to move east/northeast.
UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Radar reflectivity is starting to diminish across many areas, with obs still showing at least light rain in west central Minnesota. Precipitation is expected to continue to shift north and east along the western edge of the upper low. Winds have remained rather consistent this evening, with gusts still ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Minimal changes needed this evening as the forecast remains on track.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
While we are maybe lucky in the fact we are largely avoiding the severe weather that some of our neighbors to the south in IA/WI are having to day still system will still provide unique problems for our area. Currently there is a wind advisory out for much of west central Minnesota and adjoining parts of North Dakota. This advisory also extends north into the Red Lake/Lake of the Woods region where the pivoting axis of deformation and strong pressure gradient will linger longer into Wednesday morning. Primary reasoning for the advisory follows the strong low level pressure gradient resulting in 925-850mb over 40 kts.
A likely more impactful piece of this system is the widespread rainfall across west central Minnesota into northern Minnesota.
Current FFG indicates around 1.5-2 inches in a 6 hour period. Even with expected rain rates over 0.5"/hr per MPD 296 it seems unlikely to see flash flooding soils likely not hydrophobic yet. Thus a more likely scenario is to see sort term ponding in fields and ditches with delayed responses from rivers and stream later this week and the excess moisture permeates through respective basins. Current guidance indicates at least 2+ inches across this area in the next 2 days and specifically in the southern Red River Basin with even more rain later this week. There is about a 50 percent chance for rivers to exceed minor flood stage across this area, with uncertainty due to rainfall amounts and location along with how much will run off into the river systems.
After this initial system SW flow will bring another developing low to the northern plains with a warm front draped west-east across SD and west central MN. Probs for > 500 j/kg remain low for our area indicating a low severe threat as we remain on the cool side of the front though still in close enough proximity to bear monitoring.
Probs for > 1" with this wave are 25 percent so not expected without convective elements but also still a possibility. A brief break in the rain chances with short term ridging after the late week wave though the northern jet stream remains active with rain chances likely increasing towards the tail end of the weekend into early next week. Overall the active patter will result in cloudy to partly cloudy skies most days with highs staying in the 50s/60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Excess moisture and cloud should prevent ideal radiational cooling and limit the frost threat.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
IFR conditions prevail at KBJI this evening with VFR ceilings at all other sites. Rain will slowly diminish at KFAR by 05Z, with just VCSH thereafter. For KTVF, this will occur a bit later, with precipitation chances falling gradually through the night.
KBJI is the location closest to the upper low that is bringing rain and wind to much of the area. Gusty winds, LLWS and low ceilings are expected to prevail into Wednesday morning. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to improve starting Wednesday morning at KBJI. KDVL and KGFK are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 955 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Northerly winds gusting to 50 mph are expected across the southern Red River Valley this afternoon and evening.
- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized overland flooding for the Southern Red River Valley and into west central Minnesota.
- River Flood watches in effect for southern Red River Valley points.
UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Winds are gradually diminishing across much of the area. Peak gusts are down to 35 mph, with most areas not seeing gusts exceeding 30 mph. Light rain is still being observed across portions of the Red River Valley, and west central and northwest Minnesota. Shower activity will become more isolated heading further into the evening and overnight hours as the upper low continues to move east/northeast.
UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Radar reflectivity is starting to diminish across many areas, with obs still showing at least light rain in west central Minnesota. Precipitation is expected to continue to shift north and east along the western edge of the upper low. Winds have remained rather consistent this evening, with gusts still ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Minimal changes needed this evening as the forecast remains on track.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
While we are maybe lucky in the fact we are largely avoiding the severe weather that some of our neighbors to the south in IA/WI are having to day still system will still provide unique problems for our area. Currently there is a wind advisory out for much of west central Minnesota and adjoining parts of North Dakota. This advisory also extends north into the Red Lake/Lake of the Woods region where the pivoting axis of deformation and strong pressure gradient will linger longer into Wednesday morning. Primary reasoning for the advisory follows the strong low level pressure gradient resulting in 925-850mb over 40 kts.
A likely more impactful piece of this system is the widespread rainfall across west central Minnesota into northern Minnesota.
Current FFG indicates around 1.5-2 inches in a 6 hour period. Even with expected rain rates over 0.5"/hr per MPD 296 it seems unlikely to see flash flooding soils likely not hydrophobic yet. Thus a more likely scenario is to see sort term ponding in fields and ditches with delayed responses from rivers and stream later this week and the excess moisture permeates through respective basins. Current guidance indicates at least 2+ inches across this area in the next 2 days and specifically in the southern Red River Basin with even more rain later this week. There is about a 50 percent chance for rivers to exceed minor flood stage across this area, with uncertainty due to rainfall amounts and location along with how much will run off into the river systems.
After this initial system SW flow will bring another developing low to the northern plains with a warm front draped west-east across SD and west central MN. Probs for > 500 j/kg remain low for our area indicating a low severe threat as we remain on the cool side of the front though still in close enough proximity to bear monitoring.
Probs for > 1" with this wave are 25 percent so not expected without convective elements but also still a possibility. A brief break in the rain chances with short term ridging after the late week wave though the northern jet stream remains active with rain chances likely increasing towards the tail end of the weekend into early next week. Overall the active patter will result in cloudy to partly cloudy skies most days with highs staying in the 50s/60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Excess moisture and cloud should prevent ideal radiational cooling and limit the frost threat.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
IFR conditions prevail at KBJI this evening with VFR ceilings at all other sites. Rain will slowly diminish at KFAR by 05Z, with just VCSH thereafter. For KTVF, this will occur a bit later, with precipitation chances falling gradually through the night.
KBJI is the location closest to the upper low that is bringing rain and wind to much of the area. Gusty winds, LLWS and low ceilings are expected to prevail into Wednesday morning. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to improve starting Wednesday morning at KBJI. KDVL and KGFK are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN | 21 sm | 22 min | NNW 07 | 3 sm | Overcast | Drizzle | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 29.42 |
Duluth, MN,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE