Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, ND
May 21, 2024 12:02 PM CDT (17:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:50 AM Sunset 9:12 PM Moonrise 6:39 PM Moonset 3:41 AM |
FXUS63 KBIS 211401 AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 901 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rainy and windy in the southern James River Valley today.
- Patchy frost could develop across western and parts of central North Dakota tonight into Wednesday morning.
- Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for rain Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
- Unseasonably cold Thursday night through Friday night, with lows in the mid and upper 30s and highs on Friday only in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
UPDATE
Issued at 901 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Partly cloudy skies are present in the far northwest with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. Rain is struggling to make it into Dickey and LaMoure counties, but still should within the next couple hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Cloud cover continues to increase from south to north across the state this morning. Prior to the arrival of thicker clouds, low lying areas in western parts of the state got quite chilly, with widespread readings in the mid 30s. Overall, the forecast for today remains on track. Rain is expected to begin falling over eastern Dickey and LaMoure Counties by mid morning.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A closed upper low over southwest Saskatchewan with a trough extending south through Yellowstone National Park places southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains early this morning. At the surface, a Colorado low is intensifying over northwest Kansas, with an MCC to the north and east from Nebraska to Iowa. The low is forecast to move into central Minnesota this afternoon. Showers in the deformation northwest quadrant of the low are likely to reach the southern James River Valley today, where we are carrying a 60 to 85 percent chance of rain. Deterministic QPF from the WPC contains a very sharp gradient, ranging from around one tenth of an inch from LaMoure to Ellendale to around half an inch in the southeast corner of Dickey County. NBM probabilistic QPF fields also imply a sharp gradient, but are actually shifted a little farther west with chances for exceeding half an inch of rain as high as 40 percent from LaMoure to Ellendale. The tight pressure gradient with the low will also intrude the southern James River Valley today, with mean boundary layer winds forecast around 30-40 kts. This could translate to winds approaching advisory criteria of 30 mph sustained and 45 mph gusts across Dickey and eastern LaMoure Counties this afternoon.
Elsewhere for today, scattered showers could develop this afternoon along a low level convergence zone across central North Dakota. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out with up to around 200 J/kg CAPE, but a shallow LFC-EL layer minimizes this potential. The southern James River Valley will be the coldest part of the forecast area today under the rain and clouds, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Expect 60s elsewhere for highs today.
A surface ridge is forecast to build into western North Dakota tonight, with flow aloft beginning to transition from cyclonic to anticyclonic. This should set the stage for strong radiational cooling, although there are some questions on lingering cloud cover.
However, observations over the past few nights have shown a tendency for temperatures plummeting into the mid and upper 30s in low lying areas with light winds and little to no cloud cover. We are using the 25th percentile of NBM guidance for low temperatures tonight, which paints widespread values around 34 to 37 across the western third of the state. If confidence in this forecast remains high, a Frost Advisory will need to be strongly considered for tonight into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday should be dry for most areas with surface to upper level ridging over the Northern Plains. There are only low chances (10 to 20 percent) for showers from the Turtle Mountains to the Devils Lake Basin in the remnant cyclonic flow from the departing low, and in western North Dakota later this afternoon and evening as shortwave energy ejecting from the base of a Pacific Northwest low begins to approach the region. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to mainly be in the 60s. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move into far northern North Dakota Wednesday evening, which could allow temperatures there later that night to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
The Pacific Northwest low is forecast to dig into the Northern Rockies/upper Great Basin and eject into the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. Latest ensemble cluster analysis favors a slower progression of the surface low/trough and its attendant precipitation, which is focused over the Thursday night time frame for western and central North Dakota (70 percent membership). But there is still a lower probability outcome for a quicker passage with much lower QPF (30 percent membership, mostly GEFS). All ensembles seem to have shifted to the south with both the upper/trough wave and in particular the surface low, for which there are no longer any clusters that bring the low fully into North Dakota. However, one of the clusters that contains over half of the ECMWF members brings the major axis of the QPF shield from west central to northeast North Dakota. The two dominant clusters each have a 30 to 60 percent chance of exceeding half an inch of rain with this system (the non-ECMWF majority cluster is shifted more over southern North Dakota), but the two GEFS-driven minority clusters only have low chances (10 to 30 percent) for exceeding just a quarter of an inch, with zero chance in the northwest. The southward shift of the forecast track of this system in all ensembles has also lowered the chances for not only strong to severe storms, but also thunderstorms in general.
The passage of this trough/low is forecast to drag an unseasonably cool air mass into the Northern Plains. Prior to its arrival, there is a larger spread in NBM guidance for highs on Thursday, likely owing to arrival time uncertainty in both rain and clouds. But forecast confidence is higher for mid to upper 50s across the north than for lower to mid 60s across the south. There is much higher confidence in lows in the mid to upper 30s Thursday night, even in the presence of widespread precipitation. Wet bulb temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, which would preclude a mixed hydrometeor phase. However, a handful of GEFS members and a majority of ECMWF members are now showing potential for a geographically small area of snow Thursday night into Friday morning. The high temperature forecast for Friday has shifted notably colder from previous iterations with the NBM now advertising only mid 40s to mid 50s, and think this could actually be too warm if clouds persist through the day. Friday night carries the highest potential for frost over a larger geographic area, with light winds, decreasing clouds, and forecast lows currently in the mid 30s.
The NBM shows a quick warmup back into the 60s for highs through the holiday weekend, but 850 mb temperature anomalies in 00 UTC global ensembles do not seem to support that drastic of a warmup, so it will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves. It follows that there is growing ensemble support for another shortwave passage Sunday into Memorial Day that would likely inhibit the warmup and bring another round of rain chances through the region.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light rain will fall over the southern James River Valley later this morning and afternoon. The rain could reach KJMS, but categorical visibility restrictions are unlikely there. More widely scattered showers could develop this afternoon from around KBIS to east of KMOT. Northeast winds will increase to around 20 kts at KJMS this afternoon, with gusts approaching 30 kts. 10-15 kt winds are expected elsewhere today, with a northerly direction in central North Dakota and northwesterly in western North Dakota.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 901 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rainy and windy in the southern James River Valley today.
- Patchy frost could develop across western and parts of central North Dakota tonight into Wednesday morning.
- Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for rain Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
- Unseasonably cold Thursday night through Friday night, with lows in the mid and upper 30s and highs on Friday only in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
UPDATE
Issued at 901 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Partly cloudy skies are present in the far northwest with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. Rain is struggling to make it into Dickey and LaMoure counties, but still should within the next couple hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Cloud cover continues to increase from south to north across the state this morning. Prior to the arrival of thicker clouds, low lying areas in western parts of the state got quite chilly, with widespread readings in the mid 30s. Overall, the forecast for today remains on track. Rain is expected to begin falling over eastern Dickey and LaMoure Counties by mid morning.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A closed upper low over southwest Saskatchewan with a trough extending south through Yellowstone National Park places southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains early this morning. At the surface, a Colorado low is intensifying over northwest Kansas, with an MCC to the north and east from Nebraska to Iowa. The low is forecast to move into central Minnesota this afternoon. Showers in the deformation northwest quadrant of the low are likely to reach the southern James River Valley today, where we are carrying a 60 to 85 percent chance of rain. Deterministic QPF from the WPC contains a very sharp gradient, ranging from around one tenth of an inch from LaMoure to Ellendale to around half an inch in the southeast corner of Dickey County. NBM probabilistic QPF fields also imply a sharp gradient, but are actually shifted a little farther west with chances for exceeding half an inch of rain as high as 40 percent from LaMoure to Ellendale. The tight pressure gradient with the low will also intrude the southern James River Valley today, with mean boundary layer winds forecast around 30-40 kts. This could translate to winds approaching advisory criteria of 30 mph sustained and 45 mph gusts across Dickey and eastern LaMoure Counties this afternoon.
Elsewhere for today, scattered showers could develop this afternoon along a low level convergence zone across central North Dakota. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out with up to around 200 J/kg CAPE, but a shallow LFC-EL layer minimizes this potential. The southern James River Valley will be the coldest part of the forecast area today under the rain and clouds, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Expect 60s elsewhere for highs today.
A surface ridge is forecast to build into western North Dakota tonight, with flow aloft beginning to transition from cyclonic to anticyclonic. This should set the stage for strong radiational cooling, although there are some questions on lingering cloud cover.
However, observations over the past few nights have shown a tendency for temperatures plummeting into the mid and upper 30s in low lying areas with light winds and little to no cloud cover. We are using the 25th percentile of NBM guidance for low temperatures tonight, which paints widespread values around 34 to 37 across the western third of the state. If confidence in this forecast remains high, a Frost Advisory will need to be strongly considered for tonight into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday should be dry for most areas with surface to upper level ridging over the Northern Plains. There are only low chances (10 to 20 percent) for showers from the Turtle Mountains to the Devils Lake Basin in the remnant cyclonic flow from the departing low, and in western North Dakota later this afternoon and evening as shortwave energy ejecting from the base of a Pacific Northwest low begins to approach the region. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to mainly be in the 60s. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move into far northern North Dakota Wednesday evening, which could allow temperatures there later that night to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
The Pacific Northwest low is forecast to dig into the Northern Rockies/upper Great Basin and eject into the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. Latest ensemble cluster analysis favors a slower progression of the surface low/trough and its attendant precipitation, which is focused over the Thursday night time frame for western and central North Dakota (70 percent membership). But there is still a lower probability outcome for a quicker passage with much lower QPF (30 percent membership, mostly GEFS). All ensembles seem to have shifted to the south with both the upper/trough wave and in particular the surface low, for which there are no longer any clusters that bring the low fully into North Dakota. However, one of the clusters that contains over half of the ECMWF members brings the major axis of the QPF shield from west central to northeast North Dakota. The two dominant clusters each have a 30 to 60 percent chance of exceeding half an inch of rain with this system (the non-ECMWF majority cluster is shifted more over southern North Dakota), but the two GEFS-driven minority clusters only have low chances (10 to 30 percent) for exceeding just a quarter of an inch, with zero chance in the northwest. The southward shift of the forecast track of this system in all ensembles has also lowered the chances for not only strong to severe storms, but also thunderstorms in general.
The passage of this trough/low is forecast to drag an unseasonably cool air mass into the Northern Plains. Prior to its arrival, there is a larger spread in NBM guidance for highs on Thursday, likely owing to arrival time uncertainty in both rain and clouds. But forecast confidence is higher for mid to upper 50s across the north than for lower to mid 60s across the south. There is much higher confidence in lows in the mid to upper 30s Thursday night, even in the presence of widespread precipitation. Wet bulb temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, which would preclude a mixed hydrometeor phase. However, a handful of GEFS members and a majority of ECMWF members are now showing potential for a geographically small area of snow Thursday night into Friday morning. The high temperature forecast for Friday has shifted notably colder from previous iterations with the NBM now advertising only mid 40s to mid 50s, and think this could actually be too warm if clouds persist through the day. Friday night carries the highest potential for frost over a larger geographic area, with light winds, decreasing clouds, and forecast lows currently in the mid 30s.
The NBM shows a quick warmup back into the 60s for highs through the holiday weekend, but 850 mb temperature anomalies in 00 UTC global ensembles do not seem to support that drastic of a warmup, so it will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves. It follows that there is growing ensemble support for another shortwave passage Sunday into Memorial Day that would likely inhibit the warmup and bring another round of rain chances through the region.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light rain will fall over the southern James River Valley later this morning and afternoon. The rain could reach KJMS, but categorical visibility restrictions are unlikely there. More widely scattered showers could develop this afternoon from around KBIS to east of KMOT. Northeast winds will increase to around 20 kts at KJMS this afternoon, with gusts approaching 30 kts. 10-15 kt winds are expected elsewhere today, with a northerly direction in central North Dakota and northwesterly in western North Dakota.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJMS JAMESTOWN RGNL,ND | 23 sm | 66 min | NE 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 46°F | 59% | 29.77 |
Fargo, ND,
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