Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 1:42 PM   Moonset 2:13 AM

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LSZ145 Expires:202405110230;;997183 Fzus73 Kdlh 110144 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 844 pm cdt Fri may 10 2024
lsz144-145-162-110230- 844 pm cdt Fri may 10 2024
.an area of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior - .
the areas affected include - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
at 843 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from near knife river marina to 8 nm northwest of mcquade harbor to 13 nm northwest of duluth lift bridge channel, moving south at 35 knots.
locations impacted include - . Knife river marina, superior entry, brule point, mcquade harbor, barkers island, superior harbor, duluth lift bridge channel, duluth harbor, stoney point, and french river.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots and locally higher waves. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately and remain there until winds and waves subside.
&&
lat - .lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4672 9223 4681 9211 4699 9178 4673 9152 4666 9193 4666 9203 4671 9210 4666 9211 4665 9216 4662 9221 4663 9228 4664 9229 4664 9230

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 172350 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 650 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and some storms through the rest of today

- Marginal Risk for severe storms on Saturday with large hail up to quarter size and gusty winds being the biggest concern

- Quick dry spell before our active weather pattern returns next week with multiple shots for rain

DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Short Term:

As of early afternoon, some weak reflectivity returns can be seen on radar across the Minnesota Arrowhead. This is tied to a weak vorticity maxima swinging through the region which is causing some weak ascent ahead of it. This has led to showers and drizzle in areas close to the Canadian Border. This should continue to push northward and out of the area in the next few hours. Following this, clear skies should be present with highs topping off in the mid to upper 70s across much of the region.
Areas closer to the lake will stick in the 50s and 60s due to the presence of a lake breeze slowly moving inland. Through this afternoon and evening, there is a low end chance (30-40%) of some showers and storms refiring across our CWA Some of these showers could be a bit stronger than the ones we saw this morning with some lightning possible and stronger gusts at times. Some scattered showers will persist overnight as we get strong isentropic advection from the south.

Mid-Range: Our eyes turn to tomorrow and the threat of storms across our CWA as a cold front sweeps through the area. As it stands right now, the SPC has put the eastern half of our CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather tomorrow. The main threats would be large hail up to quarter size and gusty winds up to 60mph within the stronger convection. A trough swinging through the Canadian Prairies tonight will reach our area late Saturday Afternoon. It’ll induce cyclogenesis of a surface cyclone that’ll advect moisture into the area pushing dewpoints into the upper 50s and even lower 60s by mid afternoon. The result of these two things is anywhere from 500-1500 joules of MUCAPE to form by afternoon with 40-50kts of Bulk Shear in our vicinity.
This will lead to organized convection forming in the early afternoon near the I-35 Corridor before overspreading further east through the rest of the evening. Following the cold front, Sunday should be mostly dry with high topping off in the low to mid 70s with a light westerly wind to top it off.

Extended Range: The quick dry spell will quickly end as we begin the workweek with a quick moving shortwave moving through the Northern Plains on Monday. While nothing too substantial is expected out of it, we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA during the daytime on Monday. As that moves out of the region Monday afternoon, a more notable and impactful system will ride into the Northern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.
While we won’t see many convective storms being north of the surface low, we will mainly see a prolonged period of rain. The rain which could be heavy at times will lead to QPF totals in excess of 0.5-1.5” in a 24 hour time frame. We should see quieter conditions arrive following this storm to close out the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Isolated thunderstorms currently around the Iron Range and northern Aitkin County will continue to move east towards DLH this evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to arrive tonight into tomorrow along a cold front.
Recent model runs were showing an increasing trend for MVFR fog in DLH early Saturday morning, so a mention was included in this update. Low-level wind shear will be a concern tonight for all terminals, especially on the MN side of the region. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area tomorrow along the cold front, bringing the potential for MVFR cigs and visibility. After the cold frontal passage, conditions will be improving to VFR with decreasing cloud cover.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Issued a 6-hour Small Craft Advisory from Duluth to Sand Island as winds have gusted to around 25 kt at Port Wing the past couple observations. Winds are expected to lessen gradually this evening, but some higher waves up to 4 ft could linger.
Otherwise, northeast winds lessen tonight, then gradually shift to southwest on Saturday as a cold front passes through. Some stronger wind gusts approaching 20-25 kt may be possible around the head of the lake Saturday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight (30% chance), then some strong to low- end severe storms are possible through Saturday afternoon (50-70% chance of storms and 5-10% chance for strong to severe storms capable of producing strong winds to 50 kt and large hail up to quarter size).

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ145- 146.

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