Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 9:13 PM Moonrise 6:36 PM   Moonset 3:43 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LSZ322 St. Marys River Point Iroquois To E. Potagannissing Bay- 324 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
.the st marys river system is closed to vessel navigation - .
the st marys river system is closed to vessel navigation due to dense fog. The fog is likely to continue through Sunrise before slowly lifting.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
dense fog was reducing visibilities to below 1/2 mile. Reduce your speed, and keep a lookout for other vessels, buoys, and breakwaters. Keep your navigation lights on. If not equipped with radar, you should consider seeking safe harbor.
lat - .lon 4653 8413 4624 8411 4606 8396 4606 8390 4612 8382 4612 8364 4591 8386 4592 8396 4612 8417 4624 8436 4628 8430 4643 8436 4637 8452 4648 8466 4652 8463 4646 8456 4645 8448 4651 8438 4649 8427 4654 8420

LSZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 211928 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 328 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong to severe line of storms is possible late this evening/tonight. The primary threat is damaging winds, with large hail and a tornado or two also possible.

- Pleasant temperatures but with occasional rain chances for the Memorial Day weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Surface low pressure (currently 995 mb across western Iowa) is shown to deepen to 981 mb by Wednesday morning while tracking well northwest of the region.

Forecast: Tonight...As the deepening area of low pressure tracks from the central Plains into the northern Mississippi Valley, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to march across Wisconsin this evening, possibly reaching far western zones of northern lower just before midnight. Strong winds aloft (0-6 km bulk shear 50 to 60 knots) will likely accompany the line as well as the potential for large hail and perhaps even a tornado or two given the strong speed and directional shear. The latest SPC outlook continues the enhanced risk for severe storms near Manistee with a slight risk across much of the remainder of northern lower. However, the combination of the loss of daytime heating and the relatively cold waters of Lake Michigan will make it tough for any line of strong to severe storms to hold together this far east. A vast majority of model guidance is on board with this thinking and has the line weakening/splitting/falling apart as it progresses across the big lake. Although it looks doubtful, there is still a small chance chance that it could still impact parts of the region, especially along and near Lake Michigan. Most guidance doesn't give the line much of a chance of holding together east of I-75 on toward Lake Huron. Time will tell on this one and this will be monitored by the evening shift for current trends. Muggy tonight with lows only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday...Subsidence behind the departing system is expected to lead to at least partly sunny skies. Downsloping east of I-75 is expected to lead to highs of well into the 70s to around 80. Highs to the west in the low and mid 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A closed low will slowly track eastward as shortwave ridging builds across the Midwest in response to troughing digging across the Plains, and eventually towards Lake Superior. SW winds will turn W for Thursday and then slowly turn more N for Friday in response to the aformentioned features influencing the forecast area. Ridging and high pressure will provide moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs more seasonable in the 60s and 70s for Memorial Day weekend as flow turns more zonal. For Thursday, areas along the Lake Huron side could reach the 80s as W flow downslopes. Long term guidance suggests energy quickly tracking overhead through Friday night, bringing about the next appreciable shower chances to the region. The aforementioned trough will also bring more shower chances to the region for the holiday weekend.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Holiday weekend: Looks like an exceptional holiday weekend with moderating seasonal temperatures and mostly clear to sunny skies with some chances for showers at times. Daytime highs look to be in the 60s/70s for most, and potentially in the 80s for those in the southern-most locations of the forecast area. Friday night into Saturday continues to be the most likely timeframe for rain showers, and potentially a rumble of thunder or two. Looking at Sunday night into Monday, chances for showers pop up again as a trough and its associated low pressure tracks to Lake Superior.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Lingering fog and stratus has finally cleared out of the taf sites. Attention will turn to a possible strong to severe line of thunderstorms that may arrive before midnight into the overnight hours. This line will likely be weakening but still could contain strong damaging winds and possible hail, especially at mbL and TVC with a somewhat lesser threat at PLN.
The line may not even reach APN or CIU. Low clouds likely move in late tonight into Wednesday morning with clearing skies expected after that
In addition
LLWS is expected late tonight. Surface winds are also expected to become strong and gusty late tonight into Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Gaylord, MI,