Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 6:20 PM   Moonset 3:24 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 226 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 7 ft Tuesday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.08 kt at 339 pm Monday. Seas 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 5.26 kt at 359 am Tuesday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.07 kt at 421 pm Tuesday. Seas 6 ft.

PZZ200 226 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - The next front arrives Tuesday morning. Seas become increasingly steep later Tue into Wed then subside Thu. High pressure returns Thu followed by another weather disturbance Friday into Saturday.

FXUS66 KPQR 210459 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 957 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024

UPDATE
Made a quick update to the forecast through Tuesday, as the latest models have slowed the timing of precipitation considerably.
Tuesday morning now looks mostly dry for the forecast area, aside from perhaps for our northern coastal zones. Latest HRRR now has rain beginning in the PDX metro shortly after noon, and it may be evening by the time rain reaches the Eugene area. The slower timing of clouds/precip is expected to allow a warmer day for the Eugene area, with temperatures now expected to climb well into the 60s and possibly near 70 deg F, depending on the timing of increasing clouds.
No changes were made beyond Tuesday evening. Aviation section has also been updated below. Weagle

SYNOPSIS
Next front approaching, with increasing clouds later tonight. That front will push across region on Tue, with areas of rain. Showers Tue night into Wed as air mass turns more unstable.
Will maintain unsettled with daytime temperatures staying near to slightly below that normally expected for mid-May.

SHORT TERM
(Monday afternoon through Wednesday)...
Onshore flow will keep region under pleasant temperatures through rest of this afternoon into the evening.

Next front is well offshore, and approaching. As it does, will see increasing clouds overnight. While most areas remain dry overnight, do think will get spotty light rain spreading onto Washington coast, and as far south as Tillamook toward daybreak Tuesday. Rain will will spread across region through the morning, with rather cloudy and damp day on tap for most. Rainfall will vary on location, with much lighter rainfall as move southward across western Oregon. Current expectations are a 0.50 up to 1 inch along the coast, and into the North Oregon Coast Range and Willapa Hills, and in the South Washington Cascades down to Mount Hood area. Farther south, 0.25 to 0.50 on the central Oregon coast as well as over the central Cascades. Rainfall across the interior 0.25 to 0.50 in the Cowlitz Valley to the Portland metro, with rainfall decreasing as move southward, with 0.05 to 0.20 inch from Corvallis to Eugene.

Models still depicting the front moving onshore mid-late Tuesday afternoon, and shifting eastward to the Cascades by mid-evening. May have a brief lull between the rain with clouds breaks. But, cooler air aloft will spread into the region. As such, this will create an unstable air mass, with showers resulting for Tue night. On Wed, an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast and inland over the Pac NW. This will provide extra enhancement to the modest instability over the region, with heftier showers, some with small hail. At moment, the low should track from northwest Washington early Wed am to northeast Oregon by Wed afternoon. Following that trend, the late afternoon may end up being a bit drier for areas west of the I-5 corridor, as showers become more Cascades focused as flow turns more north to northwest behind the low. Interestingly, air mass instability could be enough to support a thunderstorm or two, but for now will not mention. But, bears watching, considering the track of the upper low and associated cool pool aloft.

Weak ridging on Thursday will bring mostly dry day. But, still have little energy rotating around the upper low that will be over the northern Rockies. As such, could still have a shower to two over the Cascades. But, with warming aloft, and meager moisture aloft, would not be much of a chance. /Rockey


LONG TERM
(Friday through Sunday)...WPC 500 mb clusters continue to indicate a general trough pattern Friday into the weekend, though specific details on timing and location of weather systems and any potential precipitation amounts are still very uncertain at this time. One aspect that does seem a little more certain is temperatures are expected to remain fairly mild through the weekend. NBM indicates a 75-95% chance that interior lowland temperatures will warm back into the 60s and remain in the 60s through the weekend. /HEC


AVIATION
Satellite imagery as of 0430z Tue shows party cloudy skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, with low clouds just off the coast. We're already starting to see high-end MVFR cigs at KAST, and expect those MVFR cigs to spread along the coast tonight. The north Oregon coast has the highest chance (50-70%) of IFR cigs through 18z Tue. More mid to high level cloud cover will also begin to filter in tonight ahead of the front. Expect mostly VFR conditions in the Willamette Valley tonight except the Portland Metro Area, where there is a 60-80% chance of high-end MVFR cigs developing after 10-12z Tue. Winds through early Tuesday morning will generally be light and variable.

The next frontal system will arrive between 18-21z Tue, bringing light rain and lowering cigs. Guidance suggests high confidence in widespread LIFR/IFR cigs along the coast and MVFR cigs in the Willamette Valley by 21z Tue-00z Wed. Winds will also pick up, with southwest winds 5-10 kt with occasional gusts to 18-20 kt.

PDX AND APPROACHES...60-80% chance of high-end MVFR cig development after 10-12z Tue. Could see cigs lift to high-end VFR between 18-21z Tue. After 21z Tue-00z Wed, high confidence for MVFR cigs as the next frontal system pushes inland. Winds will be southwest and around 5-10 kt. -Alviz

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory with steep seas of 7-8ft at 7-8 seconds, along with a small longer period (18 seconds) southwest swell. Wind generally Northwest 10 to 15 kt with brief gusts to 20 kt through this evening. Calmer conditions return tonight into early Tuesday morning, albeit briefly, before the next frontal passage arrives on Tuesday bringing rain and Small Craft Advisory Winds ahead and behind the front. Confidence is high (70-80%) wind gusts reach into the 20-25 knot range for the outer waters north of Cape Foulweather Tuesday morning ahead of the front and evening/night in the post-frontal environment. With the persistent northwest fetch in the post-frontal environment, will also see seas become very steep Tuesday night into Wednesday with greatest impacts to PZZ271 as seas rise to 10 to 13 ft with period 9 to 10 seconds.

Looking ahead, calmer winds/seas return Thursday followed by the potential for yet another weather disturbance moving into the region late Friday/Saturday continuing the rather progressive and active weather pattern. /mh -Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-252-271-272.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ271>273.

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Seaside
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM PDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:37 PM PDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM PDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:40 PM PDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seaside, 12th Avenue bridge, Necanicum River, Oregon, Tide feet

Warrenton
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:04 AM PDT     8.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM PDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:16 PM PDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 PM PDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:49 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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